Fed meeting

2023 - 2 - 1

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Image courtesy of "Investor's Business Daily"

Fed Meeting Preview: Powell Won't Break S&P 500 Rally; Wage ... (Investor's Business Daily)

The Fed meeting presents a hurdle for the S&P 500 since chair Jerome Powell is likely to push back against expectations that there's just one more rate hike ...

That's the key level to watch for now. In Tuesday stock market action, the S&P 500 jumped 1.5% after ECI report. However, compensation rose 5.1% from a year ago, a slight uptick from the 5% growth in Q3. Analysts expect a solid gain of 185,000 jobs, but average hourly wage growth is seen easing to 4.4% from 4.6% in December. news conference tomorrow after the Fed meeting wraps will hardly be the last word on the rate-hike outlook. Economists pay close attention to wage growth for private-sector workers, excluding those in incentive-paid occupations, as a good indicator of underlying wage growth. Minutes from the Fed meeting in mid-December highlighted policymakers' concern about an "unwarranted easing in financial conditions." That's why the S&P 500 backed off from a six-week high on Monday, but markets firmed up Tuesday after the Employment Cost Index showed softer wage growth in Q4.X If markets are right, tomorrow's Fed meeting policy statement will announce the next-to-last rate hike of the cycle, with a quarter-point move that's expected to be matched on March 22. But he's probably not willing to go there yet and will continue to say that inflation risks are to the upside. If he says that they're now balanced between higher-than-expected inflation and lower inflation amid a weakening economy, the S&P 500 will shoot higher. While markets could turn out to be right, this week's Fed meting is all about the Fed keeping options open.

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Image courtesy of "Barron's"

It's Time for the Fed's Announcement. Powell's Speech Today Will ... (Barron's)

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to focus on how high rates need to go to drive inflation down to 2%. Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images. Text ...

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has been emphasizing for months that the future pace of tightening is less important than how high interest rates ultimately rise, and investors and economists will be parsing his words for clues as to where the federal-funds rate might ultimately land. But don’t mistake the central bank’s downshift for a dovish pivot. The Federal Reserve is on track to slow the pace of monetary-policy tightening on Wednesday by raising interest rates by a modest quarter of a percentage point, its smallest increase in nearly a year.

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

Fed interest rate decision today live: Federal Reserve expected to ... (USA TODAY)

The FOMC meeting is today. Follow along for live updates leading up to the interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference.

] [The Fed's next meeting is from March 21 to 22.] [Fed 2023 meeting schedule ] [Here are the] [ remaining meetings ](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/12/13/federal-reserve-2023-meeting-schedule/10887436002/)for the year: ] [To see how the Fed's rate hikes have impacted other areas of the economy like home sales, the stock market and more be sure to read Jim Sergent's ] [piece](https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/graphics/2023/01/31/fed-rate-hikes-jobs-housing-stock-market/11105988002/). [Super Bowl favorites like guacamole, chicken wings will cost less this year](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/01/30/super-bowl-food-inflation/11129278002/) [How Fed rate hikes impact credit card rates] [The interest rates banks charge on their credit cards are tied to the prime rate, which is tightly linked to the Fed funds rate. ] [The] [ latest CPI report](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/01/12/cpi-report-data-release-gas-prices-inflation-december-2022/11034854002/) found prices for goods and services were 6.5% higher than a year ago. [They're on the rise as homebuyers cope with high interest rates](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/01/22/mortgage-rate-buydown-lower-interest-rates/11077611002/) [Fed already has January jobs report data ] [The first jobs report of the year is due on Friday. However, they've come down from a November peak of over 7%, the highest level since 2002.] [The fall in mortgage rates is ] [spurring demand from homebuyers](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/personalfinance/real-estate/2023/01/18/mortgage-interest-rate-dip-real-estate/11076367002/), USA TODAY's Bailey Schulz reported citing recent data from the Mortgage Bankers Association. [See how much fed interest rates have affected how much you pay](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2023/02/01/interest-rates-mortgage-rates-auto-loans-increased/11153068002/) [Fed rate hike announcement time] [The Fed's decision on interest rates comes out at 2 p.m. Four of the seven hikes were in 75 basis-point hikes, two were 50 basis-point hikes and one was a 25 basis-point hike.] [Bitcoin price ] [Bitcoin is down slightly this morning. Another seat is filled by the President of the New York Fed and the remaining four seats are a rotating group of presidents from the 11 other regional Fed banks. The FOMC is a group of 12 people who vote on interest rate decisions.] The central bank is expected to raise its short-term interest rate by a quarter percentage point, a slowing of last year's aggressive pace of hikes. Over the course of 2022, the Fed passed four 75-basis-point rate hikes.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

Fed approves smallest rate hike since March, in nod to improved ... (CNN)

The Federal Reserve unanimously approved a quarter-point interest rate hike Wednesday, slowing the pace of its increases in a clear sign that the central ...

While those trends could make the case for slowing rate hikes after months of unusually aggressive action, the central bank is far from declaring victory. The S&P 500 closed the first day of February 1.1% higher after notching its best January in four years. The “extent” of these “future increases,” they said will depend on a number of economic and financial factors.

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Fed Raises Rates by Quarter Point: Watch Live as Powell Speaks (The New York Times)

The Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter of a point, a less aggressive move than before, but said that “ongoing” rate increases were warranted.

In today’s statement, they instead talk about the “extent” of future increases — a hint, he says, that “officials have begun to debate when to pause.” He said that investors appear to think inflation will fall more quickly than the Fed expects, allowing the central bank to reduce interest rates sooner. It’s worth noting that the speed of today’s rate increase, a quarter point, is in line with what was “normal” in the years before the pandemic. “In other words, the infernal tango will continue as the Fed and markets try to find synchronized rhythms once again.” Powell says “it is a good thing” that the Fed is seeing disinflation that isn’t at the expense of a weaker labor market, but he calls today’s slowdown in inflation “early stage.” It’s coming from the goods sector, and the Fed always expected that to happen as shortages abate. “Inflation is still running very hot,” Powell says, and points again to inflation in the service sector. Powell is giving a clear reason for one reason why the Fed does not plan to stop their campaign, saying that the labor market remains extremely tight. Powell also noted that he did not “feel a lot of certainty” about where rate increases would stop and that “it could certainly be higher,” and said it was difficult to manage the risk of doing too little and having inflation spring back up. In their statement, Fed officials nodded to the fact that worldwide growth is less imperiled than it seemed last year, dropping a line that said the war in Ukraine was “weighing on global economic activity.” Powell just uttered a word I thought was banned from Fed officials: “transitory.” Back in 2021, the Fed dismissed high inflation as a transitory phenomenon that would fade as the economy reopened. But he also reiterated that the central bank was committed to bringing price increases under control, despite the potential cost to growth and the labor market. But they approved a smaller increase than in the past and acknowledged that inflation had finally started to meaningfully ease.

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Image courtesy of "Financial Times"

US stocks waver after Fed announces smaller rate rise (Financial Times)

US stocks wavered on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve announced its latest increase in interest rates and investors awaited more detailed guidance from ...

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

S&P 500 gains on Wednesday as investors shake off Fed's latest ... (CNBC)

The S&P 500 gained 0.8% after falling nearly 1% earlier. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.5%, boosted by gains in chipmakers following strong earnings from Advanced ...

[Snap](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/SNAP/)— Shares of the social media company plunged 14% after the firm [reported quarterly revenue](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/snap-earnings-q4-2022.html)that missed Wall Street's expectations, according to Refinitiv. [Electronic Arts](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/EA/) – Shares of entertainment company Electronic Arts shed 6.7% after the company reported $2.34 billion in revenue, less than the $2.51 billion analysts expected, per Refinitiv. [Advanced Micro Devices](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/AMD/)— Shares of chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices jumped 7.9% after the company [reported earnings](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/amd-earnings-q4-2022.html)that beat Wall Street's expectations, according to Refinitiv. [Click here to see more premarket movers.](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/stocks-moving-big-premarket-pton-snap-amd-ea.html) [Foot Locker](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/FL/)— Shares gained 2.6% after [Credit Suisse upgraded the stock](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/top-analyst-calls-on-wednesday-include-amd-snap-apple.html)to outperform from neutral. [e bell earnings per share of 69 cents on revenue of $5.6 billion](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/31/amd-earnings-q4-2022.html). [United Rentals](/quotes/URI/) is also trading at the highest level dating back to its December 1997 IPO. [Peloton](/quotes/PTON/) shares surged 26.5% after the fitness equipment company said its [net loss narrowed year over year](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/peloton-pton-q2-earnings-2023.html). [Match](https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/MTCH/)— Shares of the online dating company dipped 9% after posting revenue for the recent quarter that fell short of analysts' expectations, according to FactSet. But, at the same time, you have to contend with a market that is really anxious to put this whole inflation narrative behind us," Hill said. "Investors appears willing to fight the Fed – one of the many aphorisms on Wall Street that seasoned traders usually heed – and they do so at their own peril," Zaccarelli said. "I see no signs yet that the Fed is open to 2023 rate cuts," said Bill Zox, portfolio manager at Brandywine Global.

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Image courtesy of "The Wall Street Journal"

Fed Meeting Today: Interest Rates Hiked a Quarter Point; Dow ... (The Wall Street Journal)

Stocks pared losses in late afternoon trading after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point and Fed Chair Jerome Powell ...

It gave up some of those gains late in the session, but ended the day up by 2%. The Nasdaq Composite Index jumped by as much as 320 points or 2.7%. High rates are poison for growth-y investments, and they have been the ones leading the charge with the Nasdaq Composite Index jumping by almost 11% in January.\n\nBut the market barely missed a beat when the message was less friendly.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

Fed Slows Rate Hikes Even as Powell Says There's More Work to Do (Bloomberg)

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect to deliver a “couple” more interest-rate increases before putting their aggressive tightening ...

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Stock Market's Newfound Optimism Faces Test as Fed Meets (The New York Times)

After a year spent parsing Federal Reserve chair Jerome H. Powell's comments for clues about the direction of interest rates, some stock investors are going ...

He said that investors appear to think inflation will fall more quickly than the Fed expects, allowing the central bank to reduce interest rates sooner. “In other words, the infernal tango will continue as the Fed and markets try to find synchronized rhythms once again.” Powell is unsatisfied with the markets’ response, he will get another chance to set things straight when he speaks at the Economic Club of New York next week. The two-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in Fed policy, also fell 0.1 percent points to 4.12 percent. The 10-year Treasury yield, which underpins borrowing costs around the world, fell 0.1 percentage points on Wednesday to 3.42 percent. “This Fed has been more wrong than right and I think you can fight the Fed,” he said. The Nasdaq Composite, stuffed full of technology stocks, jumped 2 percent on Wednesday. Markets are also pricing in a cut in interest rates later this year, something Mr. Going by the market’s move, it appears that investors are increasingly distrustful of the Fed’s own forecasts. Though most investors are still forecasting another 0.25 percentage point rate increase in March, that outlook — reflected in trading in futures markets — is still below the Fed’s own forecasts for two more quarter-point raises. He said the market had lost faith in the Fed’s forecasts after a year in which interest rates unexpectedly rose 4.5 percentage points. The gains added to a rally that’s lifted shares by more than 7 percent this year.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

The Federal Reserve raised rates. Chair Powell says it's 'premature ... (CNBC)

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, as was widely expected.

The Fed has been raising rates since March of last year, pressuring the broader market, as it tries to fend off rising inflation. Of those, we took the worst median performance within that five-day period for each of 2022′s seven rate hikes. I believe Powell in his presser will remain with his boot on the neck of inflation but we know he's really no longer pressing down anymore outside of maybe one more time," Boockvar said in a note. That is obviously waiting too long," said Kelly, the firm's chief global strategist. Market participants had been hoping for some softening of the phrase, but the statement, approved unanimously, kept it intact. However, he said that Chairman Jerome Powell will likely take an aggressive stance against inflation in his press conference. The Fed's latest hike brings that Federal funds rate to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. "I would say that our focus is not on short term moves but on sustained changes to broader financial conditions," he said during Wednesday's press conference. "We can now say I think for the first time that the disinflationary process has started. After hikes end, he said the central bank will likely "sit tight while the economic data catches up to the policy." "He did go back and forth giving you both sides of the argument," said Cohn, a former economic advisor in the Trump administration. "It would be very premature to declare victory, or to think that we've really got this."

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