CPI

Federal Reserve officials, households and businesses alike are eager for signs that inflation will continue to recede in 2023.

But officials and American families alike have been desperate for signs that the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is working and that the economy will continue to stabilize in 2023. Inflation is still well above normal levels, and the economy remains vulnerable to shocks that could send prices back up. Inflation eased again in December, giving relief to households and businesses nationwide and offering more assurance to economic policymakers that price increases are pulling back after they soared to 40-year highs last year.

Inflation eased substantially for a third month in December as tumbling gasoline prices and a moderating rise in grocery bills offset another surge in rent.

And the price of a haircut increased by 0.3% and 6.3% from a year ago. Breakfast cereal prices rose 1.1% and 13% from a year ago. Rent jumped 0.8% monthly and 8.3% over the past year. In December, the price of eggs leaped 11.1% and is up nearly 60% from a year ago as bird flu continues to thin chicken supplies. “It definitely frees up the money for something else.” Nationally, regular unleaded gasoline averaged $3.27 a gallon Wednesday, down from about $5 in June, according to AAA. But the cost of services has marched higher as more Americans return to traveling and other activities even as lingering worker shortages push up wages. Inflation has now eased since July but the pullback has accelerated the past three months. Stocks have been moving higher this week off expectations that CPI would continue to build off November’s decline. That lowered the annual increase from 6% to 5.7%. Still, the central bank is moving more cautiously. Americans have been struggling with an historic inflation spike since spring of 2021 as an easing pandemic stoked consumer demand even while supply chain bottlenecks spawned product shortages.

Dow Jones futures: The stock market rallied again, with investors betting on a tame CPI inflation report Thursday. Amazon led megacaps.

The Energy Select SPDR ETF ( [XLE](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=XLE)) nudged 0.3% higher and the Financial Select SPDR ETF ( [XLF](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=XLF)) climbed 0.9%. [Time The Market With IBD's ETF Market Strategy](https://www.investors.com/market-trend/ibds-etf-market-strategy/ibds-etf-market-strategy/) BYD: EV Giants Vie For Crown, But Which Is The Better Buy?](https://www.investors.com/news/tesla-stock-vs-byd-stock-comparing-ev-giants-tsla-byddf-ev-stock/) [FFTY](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=FFTY)) climbed 1.3%. Infrastructure Development ETF ( [PAVE](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=PAVE)) rose 1.3%. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF ( [SMH](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=SMH)) rose 1.2%, moving above its 200-day line. Taiwan Semi, which makes chips for Apple, Nvidia ( [NVDA](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=NVDA)) and many others, [guided low for Q1](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tsm-stock-chipmaker-tsmc-posts-mixed-q4-results/). [Join IBD experts as they analyze actionable stocks in the stock market rally on IBD Live](https://shop.investors.com/offer/splashresponsive.aspx?id=IBD-Live&intcode=invstcntnartcls%7Ccms%7Cibdlive%7C2020%7C07%7Cibdlive%7Cna%7C%7C727112&src=A00433A) [AAL](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=AAL)) gave bullish preliminary Q4 figures early Thursday, a day ahead of Delta Air Lines ( [DAL](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=DAL)) earnings. Celsius was also Wednesday's [IBD Stock Of The Day](https://www.investors.com/news/celh-stock-celsius-holdings-energy-drink-maker/). [Tesla](https://www.investors.com/news/technology/tesla-stock-is-it-a-buy-now/) ( [TSLA](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=TSLA)) and AMZN stock also reflected strong performance in auto/EV names and e-commerce plays, respectively. [KBH](https://research.investors.com/quote.aspx?symbol=KBH)) reported earnings after the close, kicking off housing reports.

The Consumer Price Index rose 6.5 percent annually through last month, in line with expectations. Federal Reserve officials are closely watching prices for ...

The Fed’s key policy rate is currently set in a range of 4.25 percent to 4.5 percent. And housing costs make up a big chunk of the overall Consumer Price Index. Still, investors have been encouraged in recent months by signs that inflation is moderating and by the Fed’s response in December to slow the pace of interest rate increases. As a result, the Fed may need to continue raising interest rates and keep them at a high level for an extended period of time, increasing costs for companies and weighing on stock markets. “Out-of-control Washington spending got Americans and our economy into this mess,” Representative Jason Smith of Missouri, the chairman of the Ways and Means Committee, said in a news release. He has repeatedly pointed to the strength of the job market as a sign that the nation is nowhere near an economic downturn. In remarks that lacked some of his typical cautions about how far the economy still has to go to recover, Mr. [slowed interest rates increases](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/14/business/economy/interest-rates-inflation-fed.html) in December after a series of rapid moves earlier in the year, and seem poised to slow them further at their next meeting on Feb. That was up from 0.1 percent in November, according to calculations by Omair Sharif, founder of Inflation Insights. The takeaway is that inflation is moderating meaningfully. Economists and Fed officials are more acutely focused on a so-called core inflation measure, which removes food and fuel prices to get a sense of underlying price trends. The annual inflation rate was the slowest since October 2021, a pullback that came as

Consumer prices slowed further in December, boosting hopes that the worst of red-hot inflation is behind the U.S. The annual inflation rate fell from 7.1 ...

Food prices rose 0.3 percent, down from 0.5 percent in November. But Fed officials have insisted that they will continue measures to bring down inflation to their target 2 percent rate. Economists have warned that the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes could send the U.S. Energy prices fell 4.5 percent in December after falling 1.6 percent in November. Prices fell 0.1 percent last month after rising 0.1 percent in November. The annual inflation rate fell from 7.1 percent in November to 6.5 percent in December, according to the

The consumer price index was expected to decrease 0.1% on a monthly basis and increase 6.5% from a year ago in December, according to Dow Jones.

That would represent another step down for the central bank after it approved four consecutive 0.75 percentage point hikes last year before slowing down to a 0.5-point increase in December. The Federal Reserve prefers a different gauge that adjusts for changes in consumer behavior. A steep drop in gasoline was responsible for most of the monthly decline. There was some indication in the data that consumer are shifting behavior. Following the CPI report, market pricing pointed toward an increased probability that the Fed would approve a 0.25 percentage point rate increase on Feb. "We know that we won't get the same kind of support from gasoline prices. Policymakers are weighing how much further they need to go with interest rate hikes used to slow the economy and tame inflation. That equated to the largest month-over-month decrease since April 2020, as much of the country was in lockdown to combat [Covid](https://www.cnbc.com/coronavirus/). Even with the decline, headline CPI rose 6.5% from a year ago, highlighting the persistent burden that the rising cost of living has placed on U.S. Medical care services increased 0.1% after dropping for two straight months, while apparel prices rose 0.5% and transportation services were up 0.2% and are still 14.6% higher from a year ago. Obviously, it's still painfully high, but it's quickly moving in the right direction," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. However, that was the smallest annual increase since October 2021.

(Bloomberg) -- Stock futures whipsawed as inflation data disappointed some traders waiting for a bigger deceleration that could allow the Federal Reserve to ...

Stock futures dropped, then rebounded to trade near the flatline after the release of the Labor Department's inflation report for December.

Treasury yield was 3.491%, according to TradeWeb; it was earlier 3.504%.\n\nRead today's full daily markets roundup here. Stock futures dropped, then rebounded to trade near the flatline after the release of the Labor Department's inflation report for December.

Stock futures advanced after December's consumer prices report came in in line with economist expectations and showed inflation continues to cool.

The company now expects earnings for the quarter to come in between $1.12 and $1.17 per share, up from a previous range of 50 cents to 70 cents. [Disney](/quotes/DIS/) – Disney shares added more than 1% in early morning trading after the company elected independent director Mark Parker [as Chairman of the board](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/nike-chairman-mark-parker-will-become-chairman-of-disney.html). [Bed Bath & Beyond](/quotes/BBBY/) — The retailer advanced 16% premarket, [continuing to rally after a handful of meme stocks surged Wednesday](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/bed-bath-beyond-jumps-50percent-to-lead-last-gasp-rally-in-meme-stocks-amc-gains-15percent.html). The stock gained 1.3% in premarket trading. [American Airlines](/quotes/AAL/) — The airline gained 5% after [the company lifted its fourth quarter guidance](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/american-airlines-hikes-revenue-estimates.html), citing strong demand and high fares. See how each of the three futures indexes moved in the 30 minutes leading up to and following the release of the data at 8:30 a.m. The consumer price index fell 0.1% in December, matching a Dow Jones estimate. The futures market, however, has been pricing in a quarter point hike. In November, the report showed a 0.1% monthly gain and an annual pace of 7.1%, according to Dow Jones. The major futures indexes whipsawed as investors responded to December's CPI data, which came in in line with economist expectations. The stripped-down index was 5.7% higher than a year ago in December. Stock futures whipsawed in the minutes directly following the report's release before trending positive.

The CPI inflation rate continued to fall sharply in December, but core service inflation has yet to subside. S&P 500 futures rose slightly.

Core services prices rose 0.5% on the month and 7% from a year ago vs. Health care spending in the CPI excludes the bulk of outlays: spending covered by employers and government programs. Core goods-price inflation is waning and the same is likely for housing inflation in 2023, given the stalling of market rents. The average hourly wage rose 4.6% from a year ago, below 5% forecasts, kick-starting the current S&P 500 rally. Prices for used cars and trucks fell 2.5% on the month and are now 8.8% below year-ago levels. The core CPI inflation rate peaked at a 40-year-high 6.6% in September. The CPI inflation rate eased to 6.5% from 7.1% the prior month vs. The good news for markets that sparked the latest S&P 500 rally attempt is that wage growth showed a surprising deceleration in December. The annual core inflation rate eased to 5.7% from 6%. The Fed is likely to continue stepping down the pace of rate hikes to just a quarter-point with its next policy move on Feb. The CPI inflation rate fell faster than expected in December. The consumer price index was fell 0.1% on the month vs.

Inflation keeps slowing. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday that the consumer price index rose 6.5% from a year ago in December, ...

"The (CPI) is just one measure of inflation, and it's calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics with a large component being owner-occupied rent. 10, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said: "Restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy." In a speech in New Orleans on Jan.

Consumer price index in December matched expectations pretty much across the board.

In the industrials, we own [Emerson Electric](/quotes/EMR/) (EMR) for the Club. [General Electric](/quotes/GE/) (GE) price target after health care split. Instead, we like and own Corona, Modelo and Pacifico maker [Constellation Brands](/quotes/STZ/) (STZ), which has the fastest-growing beer franchise with a strong December; taking share. The tech [will be offered](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/walmart-teams-with-salesforce-to-sell-tech-to-retailers.html) in the spring via Salesforce. Peltz, a major Disney shareholder, says the company [lost its way](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/11/nike-chairman-mark-parker-will-become-chairman-of-disney.html), and he wants to work with just-returned CEO Bob Iger to right the ship. [matched expectations](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/consumer-prices-fell-0point1percent-in-december-in-line-with-economists-expectations.html) pretty much across the board. Subway considering selling itself in a deal that would value the sandwich chain at $10 billion. Same-store sales up 8.4% in the third quarter. The shortage is over. The company should declare or ready 100 million shares to do Chapter 11 bankruptcy, not Chapter 7. That's more than double the previous forecast at the low end. To be sure, though, the CPI print is good news, ending 2022 down 0.1% month over month and up 6.5% year over year.

All eyes were on the Federal Reserve and what the latest data mean for interest rates.

Consumer prices decreased by 0.1% in December, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday in its Consumer Price Index. The last time prices were lower ...

In addition to food prices still being on the rise, core inflation picked up 0.3% in December from November. Economists anticipate that the Fed will continue to slow the pace of its rate hikes in 2023. “If you take the month-over-month numbers since July and annualize that, the annually compounded monthly rate has been around 2%, right at [the Fed’s target],” Calhoun said. Most notably, food prices grew at the smallest monthly rate since March of 2021, BLS data shows. “We hit the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years in this country, and workers are seeing real wage increases.” “This month, food [at home] prices rose just two-tenths of a percent. Prices skyrocketed during the first half of the year, with [ inflation hitting 9.1% at its crest in June](https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/13/economy/cpi-inflation-june/index.html). “We have more work to do, but we’re on the right track.” “Demand for services really seems to be slowing down as well,” Bruun said. [rickety ride for Americans](https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/10/economy/single-parent-inflation-economy/index.html). The last time prices were lower than the previous month was May 2020. It’s the smallest annual increase since May 2021.

Treasury yields fell on Thursday as investors digested a key inflation report that showed a small decline in price pressures.

"Though we aren't out of the woods yet as it is still well-above the Fed's target rate and the Fed has remained adamant that they will keep rates high to bring inflation back to normal levels." After implementing four consecutive 75 basis point rate increases, the central bank slightly slowed the pace of rate hikes to 50 basis points at its last meeting. Many are hoping that the Fed will continue to slow, or completely pause, rate hikes as concerns about their pace dragging the U.S. "Considering this report, the Federal Reserve will likely continue to tighten monetary policy, potentially at a slower pace." That equated to the largest month-over-month decrease since April 2020, as much of the country was in lockdown to combat Covid. The 2-year Treasury yield was trading nearly 6 basis points lower at around 4.17%.

U.S consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December amid declining prices for gasoline and motor vehicles, offering hope that ...

The rent measures in the CPI tend to lag the independent gauges. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI climbed 0.3% last month after rising 0.2% in November. A separate report from the Labor Department on Thursday showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 205,000 for the week ended Jan. The unemployment rate is back at a five-decade low of 3.5%. The CPI rose 0.1% in November. The annual CPI peaked at 9.1% in June, which was the biggest increase since November 1981. Price pressures are subsiding as higher borrowing costs cool demand, and bottlenecks in the supply chains ease. That was the smallest rise since October 2021 and followed a 7.1% advance in November. In the 12 months through December, the CPI increased 6.5%. The cost of food consumed at home increased 0.2%. "The mountain peak of inflation is behind us but the question is how steep the downhill is," said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. The report could allow the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month.

Inflation fell in December according to the latest CPI release. David Wessel, Wendy Edelberg, and Justin Wolfers discuss the new report.

“The broader conversation is really going to change its shape and nature as we move from the crisis period of inflation to the ‘Oh, so what,’ and even the ‘This is pretty normal,’ part of the cycle.” “I think the whole discussion is going to shift, the politics are going to shift, and the Fed is going to find itself in a very uncomfortable situation,” he said. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this report are solely those of its author(s) and are not influenced by any donation. So the point is that even the services side of the economy, while it’s got high rates of inflation, those rates of inflation are falling.” This is especially important given that the primary cost in providing services is wages, continued Wolfers. “For the last three months [core inflation] has risen at a rate of 3.1% at an annualized rate, and that is not all that far from what the Fed would target for that rate,” said Edelberg, noting that the Fed’s target for core CPI is around 2.5%, slightly higher than the Fed’s target of 2% on an alternative inflation measure (the price of personal consumption expenditures). So 3.1% is awfully good news.” “We’re never allowed to say we’ve won the war on inflation,” added Wolfers, “But what we do get to say is we feel enormously more relieved today, and that’s been true for each of the last three inflation prints.” “It’s quite possible for workers to catch up that ground without it feeding through to prices.” Rather than just looking at unemployment, Edelberg emphasized a different labor market indicator to watch for: overall employment gains: “What I’m very confident is that we can’t continue to see employment gains of more than 200,000 every month. She cited two other factors that haven’t received as much attention: Demand for food (people buying more, higher quality food) and food prices competing with other goods for which demand has also been high. [has expressed concern](https://www.brookings.edu/events/federal-reserve-chair-jerome-powell-the-economic-outlook-and-the-labor-market/) about the unemployment rate—that low unemployment would contribute to fast wage increases, making it difficult for the Fed to achieve its 2% inflation target without a rise in unemployment. [latest report](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with year-over-year inflation falling to 6.5%. “I think three months of declines officially makes a trend,” said Edelberg. This blog is a summary of a January 12, 2023 discussion on Twitter Spaces.

Yesterday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its report on the December Consumer Price Index (CPI). Viewed in isolation, the data were quite striking.

This shows that the remaining “really, really core” inflation (shown in the graph below) is currently running at a 4.4 percent annual rate. In the month from November to December, the topline CPI fell at a 3.6 percent annual rate, even though food prices rose at a 3.8 percent rate and shelter prices spiked at a 9.2 percent annual rate. That is the good news. Numerically, the Fed’s problem is that with shelter inflation at 7.5 percent, all other inflation must be -0.75 percent in order to hit a 2 percent target. The bundle of necessities – food, energy, and shelter – rose at an 8.9 percent year-over-year rate in December – unchanged from November. Stepping back and looking at year-over-year changes from December 2021, CPI inflation was 6.5 percent and core (non-food, non-energy) inflation was 5.7 percent.

Oil kissing $80, Gold kissed and pierced $1900! Oh, and China oil demand – expected to be 'strong'. Try the Pesce Spada all Siciliana.

The market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a solicitation to invest or increase investments in BJAM products or the products of BJAM affiliates. A well-balanced core portfolio – is the goal - You can use cash to play around the edges and add alpha to your portfolio on names that become completely disconnected to current reality. Again – not a reason to abandon the ship – but it is something to keep in mind…..Capisce? And if the data does cooperate – it doesn't mean that they will begin cutting either….JJ and his team have been clear – inflation is in the bullseye…..2% is the goal – and we are at ~6% currently….that’s a 4% difference…..and that 4% is what is going to be tough to conquer. And the Bank earnings…expect lots of discussion around the guidance and the ‘Provision for loan losses’. Higher inflation forces employees to demand higher wages, which forces inflation higher, which forces wages higher….It’s a vicious circle and one that can be stopped by ‘slowing the economy down’….and how does that happen? which is lower than the original estimate and that is due to what they expect the pilot’s union negotiations to impose…think higher wages (to combat higher inflation) and better benefits….and this goes to my prior concern of spinning into that wage/price spiral inflationary cycle…. By the time the closing bell rang – we saw that all of this seemed to mean nothing to the traders, algo’s and investors…. But the point is that ‘services’ inflation is NOT going down….Dishwashers are part of the service economy, waiters and waitresses are part of the service economy. Higher food prices and higher costs to employ people to work are all part of the services economy and it IS ‘sticky’ inflation…. - you have to pay him $60 and then he has to take $30 (50%) to pay the federal, state & local taxes…In Florida – there are no state and local taxes – so the cost to hire that same dishwasher and put him on the payroll is less.) . Comments by Philly FED President Patty Harker seemed to give the impression that the FED might be softening…he said – and I quote.