AAPL

2023 - 1 - 4

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Image courtesy of "Seeking Alpha"

Apple Stock: You Have Been Warned Again (Seeking Alpha)

Apple may consider a price cut for next year's iPhone 15 and the larger iPhone 15 Plus due to lower demand for the iPhone 14. Read more on AAPL stock here.

[Beyond the Wall Investing ](https://seekingalpha.com/checkout?service_id=mp_1415)is about active portfolio positioning and finding investment ideas that are hidden from a broad market of investors. In my bachelor's thesis, I looked at finding the best statistical/machine learning methods to predict underpricing of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. [according to ROIC.ai](https://roic.ai/company/AAPL). Here, I assume that EBIT and EBITDA margins will again fall slightly in FY2023 (27% and 30%), but recover in 2024 and come close to previous years' records again at the end of the forecast period (FY2027 - 31% and 33%). Previously, this user had leaked information that accurately predicted the price of the iPhone 14 Pro, the chip and colors of the iPhone 14 Pro, and the design changes and release date of the tenth-generation iPad. [the company's 10-K](https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0000320193/b4266e40-1de6-4a34-9dfb-8632b8bd57e0.pdf) - it's not entirely clear how much of that revenue came from the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus models, so it's complicated to make any clear inferences about the impact of a possible price reduction only in 2 categories. For example, if Apple lowers the price of the iPhone 15 Plus to $800, the standard iPhone 15 would probably also cost $800 - this means the price of the iPhone 15 would have to be lowered to $700 to keep a price difference between the two models, like the iPhone 13 mini and the standard iPhone 13. From 2024, the company will return to its usual average of 3.5%. Moreover, FY2024 will be a pronounced recovery period, and in 2028 we will see growth rates that are more than 2x the long-term averages (according only to 1 analyst): I have remained Neutral ever since, constantly saying that despite the apparent moat and free cash flow ("FCF") generation that the company has continued to please shareholders through challenging times, the stock seemed overpriced - both in terms of its historical multiples and in comparison with the entire [IT sector](https://seekingalpha.com/screeners/9679329f-Top-Technology-Stocks). I think the price elasticity of demand for Apple's products - despite all the brand power - is seriously threatened now and especially next year.

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Image courtesy of "Invezz"

Gene Munster: 'AAPL should be a $250 stock' (Invezz)

Gene Munster, founder of fund manager Loup, says 'AAPL should be a $250 stock' even as Apple market value dips below $2 trillion.

According to him, while the above examples trade at P/E multiple of 30, or 30x, Apple is trading at a 21 multiple. And as the tech giant’s stock sold off, the company’s market value sank by more than $85 billion to below $2 trillion. “Ultimately, consumers may delay for three, six, nine months, but they are going to come back. AAPL closed nearly 4% down on Tuesday as the company’s stock kicked off 2023 with fresh losses. [Price-to-Earnings](https://invezz.com/courses/stocks/stock-investing/pe-price-to-earnings/) (P/E) ratio of companies such as [Coca Cola](https://invezz.com/stocks/coca-cola/), [Disney](https://invezz.com/stocks/disney/) and Caterpillar. [NASDAQ: AAPL](https://invezz.com/stocks/quotes/nasdaq-aapl/)) shares are trading at what could be a bargain at current prices, Gene Munster, founder and Managing Partner at research-driven fund manager Loup [ says](https://twitter.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1610607408207781889).

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Image courtesy of "FXStreet"

Not the way you wanted to start the year, TSLA and AAPL pre-warn (FXStreet)

The mood turns sour - TSLA and AAPL pre-announce slowing demand! FED mins due out today…what will we learn? (Nothing). Oil – takes a hit – It's the de.

The market commentary is for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as a solicitation to invest or increase investments in BJAM products or the products of BJAM affiliates. BJAM does not undertake to advise you of any change in its opinions or the information contained in this report. Remove the cheese rind and serve in bowls with a drizzle of extra virgin olive oil and grated Parmigiano. The House has now held 3 votes for Speaker and he isn’t winning….For me, the disgust is that the GOP has had 8 weeks to prepare for this moment and they screwed it up. What will they reveal about who is worried that the sticky inflation (that we don’t have) will linger longer than expected…..the mins will suggest that many of the members expect inflation to be higher at the end of 2023 than previously thought. You’d think that they would have had this all buttoned up for yesterday’s vote, but no, that was not the case and then they want to know why American’s are disgusted. And the we heard that Timmy Cook at Apple is telling its Chinese suppliers to make ‘fewer components for air pods, watches and MacBooks for the 1 qtr. It was also the 3rd straight quarter that they missed on deliveries and that caused a bevy of analysts to cut their price target on the Much of the miss was sales in China (or lack of) to which I would say – Have you not realized what has been going on in China? Now what baffles me is that it’s not like they haven’t punished TSLA over the past 12 months….they have – the stock was down 65% in 2022 (think sexy growth names under fire by the FED rate increases)….yet, after yesterday’s headline TSLA traded down 15% more to $104.64 by mid-day only to ‘rally’ into the bell to close at $108.05, a 12.5% loss on top of the 65% loss suffered in 2022….Here is where it goes off the rails – they clobbered the stock over the last 12 months, then yesterday they pre-announced a RECORD number of deliveries (earnings report not due until January 25th) in a ‘challenging environment’ none the less and the algo’s weren’t satisfied and took 12.5% more out of the name. Current 12 month price estimates range from $85 to $450 – the median is now $250/sh which is a 132% increase from last nights close. The Dow lost 11 pts after swinging 537 pts from hi to low, the S&P gave up 15 pts after swinging 84 pts from hi to low, the Nasdaq lost 80 pts but swung 304 pts before the day ended, the Russell lost 11 pts after swinging 48 pts and the Transports rose 6 pts after its 239 pt.

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