Recession

The economy shrank 0.9% in Q2, marking second straight contraction, raising recession concerns. Inflation, Fed rate hikes set to slow growth.

In other words, consumers and business spending – the economy's engine – is losing some steam. Despite the budget squeeze, households continue to be bolstered by strong job growth and more than $2 trillion in savings amassed during the pandemic. Yet there’s little doubt the economy is shifting into a lower gear and entering a perilous period. Companies bulked up their stocks excessively last year to grapple with longstanding supply chain bottlenecks and product shortages. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.5% rise in GDP. By comparison, outlays surged at a double-digit pace in early 2021 when the economy was reopening and federal stimulus checks juiced purchases. The chief culprit in the second quarter contraction was a sharp pullback in business stockpiling. Inflation hit a 40-year high of 9.1% in June and the Federal Reserve is trying to combat the price surge by aggressively raising interest rates in a campaign that could trigger a recession. In the second quarter, inflation-adjusted domestic final sales, which strips out volatile categories such as inventories and trade, fell 0.3% following a 2% rise the first three months of the year. The second straight quarterly decline in output meets an informal threshold for recession but not the criteria relied on by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The non-profit group defines a recession as a significant decline in a broad range of economic activity, including employment, retail sales and industrial production. The U.S. economy has contracted for a second straight quarter, sounding the alarm over a possible recession as the nation grapples with soaring inflation and rising interest rates. The nation’s gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S., shrank at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.9% in the April-June period, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That followed a 1.6% drop early this year.

There are still mounting concerns about the U.S. economy's resilience. Inflation is at 40-year highs, home sales are weakening and even the-red hot labor ...

Some of the signs of a slowdown in economic growth are by design, thanks to interest rate hikes aimed at cooling down the economy. Beneke is still hiring new employees, though he says he may cut back on his marketing budget and start buying fewer cars — perhaps 12 a week instead of 15 — if the slump continues. “If the money is better left in savings, that’s what we’re doing.” On Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell pointed to a number of data points — including slower growth in consumer spending, weakening demand for housing and lower business investments — as signs that the central bank’s efforts are working. General Motors, meanwhile, reported a 40 percent drop in quarterly profits and announced plans to curb hiring. “We are expecting the economy to slow quite sharply,” she said. The only time there have been six months of contraction without a recession appears to have been in 1947, according to Tara Sinclair, an economics professor at George Washington University. Walmart this week slashed its profit expectations for the year, causing its stock price to drop nearly 9 percent. Still, most economists expect the U.S. economy will end the year with growth — albeit at a much slower pace than the 5.7 percent gain it notched last year. Businesses and households, which are already struggling to deal with soaring prices, say looming economic uncertainty has made it difficult to make long-term plans. Meaningful, important parts of the economy are slowing.” The sour report on the gross domestic product reflects ongoing problems with inflation, which have been at 40-year highs for several months, as well as weakening home sales and challenges for some corporate sectors, including tech and finance.

The US economy shrank again in the second quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday.

"When you have highly fluctuating commodity prices, and especially in periods of high inflation in general, then it can be misleading and, in my opinion, paint an overly negative view of where the economy is," Kirkegaard said. "The fourth quarter, to me, was bloated a little bit," Rathbun said. This pulled forward economic activity that otherwise would have taken place in the early months of this year, she said. "They have a much stricter definition: It's a broad-based and persistent weakness in the economy," Sweet said. Economists say the biggest reason it would be premature to call a recession based on Thursday's numbers is that the data can and probably will change. In that sense, a rising trade deficit subtracts from GDP," he said, particularly when combined with wild swings in prices. It's really concentrated in inventories and in trade -- trade was a big drag on first-quarter GDP." "What you're starting to see and hear a lot about right now is what's happening with inventories... That total is 5,000 below the previous week's level, which was revised upward by 10,000 claims to 261,000. Investments made in inventory during the second quarter were therefore lower than they were in the first quarter. Businesses in recent quarters have tried to replenish stockpiles drawn down during the pandemic -- and in trying to adjust for supply chain upheaval, they've found themselves overstocked at a time when consumers have pulled back on some purchases. and it is unlikely to render a verdict any time soon.

The bad news will be a major blow for the Biden administration as it prepares for a tough midterm election season.

But he said the Fed was prepared to keep raising rates in order to bring prices back down and that it was inevitable that such a move would slow the economy and affect the job market. In a statement, Biden said it was “no surprise that the economy is slowing down as the Federal Reserve acts to bring down inflation. Fed chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that he did not believe the US was now in a recession. Two quarters of negative GDP growth are widely regarded as a signal that the economy has gone into recession. White House officials have tried to tamp down talk of a recession, arguing that many parts of the economy remain strong. Consumer spending – the largest driver of the economy – slowed over the quarter but remained positive, rising 1% on an annual basis.

A financial downturn doesn't have to cause an emotional one. By Arthur C. Brooks. Illustration of a person wearing a helmet riding a ...

Look at the market in aggregate, not your own accounts, if you really must check how the economy is doing. You will not satiate your hunger for certainty with another hour of news; on the contrary, it will probably decrease your sense of control and increase your stress. When things are going south in your bank account, portfolio, or home value, it is easy to feel all alone in your misfortune, and to beat yourself up for not doing something before the economy started to tank. If you want to end the boom and bust cycles in your happiness, you need to stay just as steady in the good times as you do in the bad. Bingeing on information is a tempting way to try to eliminate the feelings of uncertainty that our current economic moment might inspire. I can assure you that the experts don’t know what is going to happen either. For example, make sure that you automatically save 15 percent of your income every month if you can, and if possible, have a rule against carrying any credit-card balances. The unhappiness that accompanies recession is real, and you’re not irrational if you feel it. When the economy is tanking, you might add insult to injury by looking every day at your neighborhood gas station’s price sign or checking your pension constantly. And although the job market looks good now, you might be starting to feel nervous about that too. If you’re a homeowner, knowing that your house is losing value comes with a special sense of helplessness. How to Build a Life” is a weekly column by Arthur Brooks, tackling questions of meaning and happiness.

In an aerial view, shipping containers sit idle at the Port of Oakland on July 21, 2022 in Oakland, California. Truckers protesting California labor law ...

Earlier this month, the White House raised some hackles when it released a blog post insisting the economy is not in a recession. "I've never seen anything like it in terms of just the anticipation of this bad economy that's dead ahead. "Policymakers will no doubt be tying themselves in knots trying to explain why the U.S. economy is not in recession. Higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and a historically sour mood on behalf of consumers and businesses pose major dangers ahead. It's about as dark as I've ever seen it," said Zandi, the Moody's economist. At the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith. "If this definition feels involved, it's because it is," Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a client note earlier this week. "Yet real consumer spending continued to forge ahead and the job market still has legs. In fact, every time since 1948 that GDP has fallen for at least two straight quarters, the NBER ultimately has declared a recession. "What we have right now doesn't seem like" a recession, Powell said. "I just don't see them declaring a recession." It is too early call the end of this expansion, but the hour is fast approaching."

Collecting a bunch of numbers about the economy in real-ish time—the car purchases, the single-family-housing investments, the furniture imports, and the iPhone ...

But in the meantime, it’s the numbers that matter, not the nomenclature. Phenomenologically, it doesn’t change anything about your life—not the price of the coffee, not the wage of the barista, and not the income in your pocket. This economy is pretty crummy for a lot of people. Collecting a bunch of numbers about the economy in real-ish time—the car purchases, the single-family-housing investments, the furniture imports, and the iPhone exports—is grueling and complex work for the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Factoring in the error margins, there is still roughly a 50 percent chance that the economy grew in the first six months of this year. That’s one good reason to avoid the “are we in a recession?” debate entirely. President Joe Biden has assured the public that the U.S. economy is not actually in a recession, while conservative media will surely use today’s report to state confidently that it is.

A years-old tweet from CNN White House correspondent John Harwood has gotten new life this week — always a sign that someone, somewhere is hoping to score ...

Recognizing that defending Harwood and White would prompt people to dig up occasions on which I might have described a recession as being necessarily tied to two quarters of economic slowdown, I went ahead and did the search. But since he used two quarters of decline and nothing else as his trigger for that announcement, it was portrayed as hypocritical. But the declaration of a recession has political repercussions that the White House hopes to avoid — and its critics hope to elevate. At that point, he pointed to GDP declines as an indication that “we are in a recession right now” — which we were. Much of this debate centers on the distinction between a rule of thumb and a rule. It’s the difference between walking off the size of a room and measuring it accurately.

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate.

Since 1948, the economy has never seen consecutive quarterly growth declines without being in a recession. That resulted in a decline of inflation-adjusted after-tax personal income of 0.5%, while the personal saving rate was 5.2%, down from 5.6% in the first quarter. The economic slowdown has created a political headache for the White House as well. "It really was to script," Zandi said of the report. That only intensified when Russia invaded Ukraine in February and, more recently, when China enacted strict shutdown measures to battle a burst of Covid cases. The Federal Reserve over the past four months has raised benchmark borrowing rates by 2.25 percentage points. But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. "The only encouraging thing was that inventories played such a large role. Consumer spending, as measured through personal consumption expenditures, increased just 1% for the period as inflation accelerated. Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. Gross private domestic investment tumbled 13.5% for the three-month period Markets reacted little to the news, with stocks slightly lower at the open.

How predictive are two straight quarters of negative GDP of an officially declared recession? And how much does that matter, politically?

The negative impact of the financial crash was very much baked-in to that result, but it wasn’t formally a recession until afterward. But certainly, the prospect of a recession won’t help. When the NBER declared a recession in April 1991, George H.W. Bush was still riding very high at that point. And the recession before that — in 2001 — didn’t satisfy the shorthand at any point. But it’s also conceivable — though rare — to actually have two straight negative quarters without a recession designation at all. Of the eight examples shown here, four were not announced until at least a year had elapsed. All of these, of course, are examples of two straight negative quarters being unnecessary to declare a recession rather than insufficient. Despite the shorthand, two straight quarters of negative GDP have not been determinative of an impending recession resignation. And what is the political significance if a recession is declared? The following month, the fourth quarter report gave us a second straight negative quarter. The designation came in December 2008, after data showed the first and third quarters of 2008 were negative, but not the second. Naturally, this has led to plenty of consternation for a Democratic Party already staring down the barrel of an arduous 2022 midterm election.

The U.S. economy contracted for a second straight quarter in Q2 according to the latest GDP data, sparking plenty of recession chatter around Wall Street.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers points to other key indicators, such as the continued strength of consumer spending and job growth in the first half of the year, as positive signs that we are not in a recession. While it seems inaccurate to think of the first half of the year as a recession, the outlook for the second half and into 2023 is dicier." The second quarter saw big headwinds to growth from nondurable goods spending as consumers pulled back in the face of higher gas and food prices. And they clearly won't reduce the odds of a real recession." The economy is highly vulnerable to slipping into a recession. - "The back-to-back contraction of GDP will feed the debate about whether the U.S. is in, or soon headed for, a recession. - "While this morning's GDP reading marks two negative quarters of GDP growth, we'll push back on the notion that we're in a recession. But the more important point is that the economy has quickly lost steam in the face of four-decade high inflation, rapidly rising borrowing costs, and a general tightening in financial conditions. It is too early to call the end of this expansion, but the hour is fast approaching." - "Insisting upon the precise definition of recession will be an even more fraught task in light of the unequivocal deterioration in economic activity reflected in today's 0.9% contraction in Q2 real GDP. Yet real consumer spending continued to forge ahead and the job market still has legs. The economy created 2.7 million jobs in the first half of 2022. It's nigh impossible to call a recession in real time when the economic cycle hasn't been rocked by years of exogenous shocks.

Gross domestic product, in an initial reading, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter. President Biden said any troubles would be transitory.

“Every annual plan I’ve done in the past three years has not happened that way,” she said. Avital Ungar is trying to interpret the conflicting signals in real time. Ms. Ungar said demand remained hard to predict as prices rise and the economy slows. That could be a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of soaring airfares and rental car rates. Indeed, economists argue that a pullback in spending on goods is needed to relieve pressure on overstretched supply chains. Or it could merely reflect a temporary willingness to put up with high prices, which will fade along with the summer sun. Underlying measures of demand remained solid, and many economists thought it was likely that the first-quarter data would eventually be revised to show a modest gain. He has thought about finding a conventional 9-to-5 job to pay the bills, but he would then need to pay for child care for his 4-year-old twins. News of the back-to-back contractions heightened a debate in Washington over whether a recession had begun and, if so, whether President Biden was to blame. Consumer spending, the bedrock of the economy, grew, although at its slowest pace since the first months of the pandemic. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path, and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.” The estimates for both periods will be revised in coming months as government statisticians get more complete data.

While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don't think the economy is in recession, many increasingly expect an economic downturn to ...

For the past two weeks, the yield on the two-year Treasury has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. The clearest signal that a recession is under way, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. The economy’s flashing signals — slowing growth with strong hiring — have put the Fed in a tough spot. Many analysts say, though, that comparing the 3-month yield to the 10-year has a better recession-forecasting track record. The Fed’s rapid rate hikes have raised the likelihood of recession in the next two years to nearly 50 percent, Goldman Sachs economists have said. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. Still, in the past, it has been a useful measure. Yet the NBER typically doesn’t declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year. If the economy were to lose jobs and the public were to grow more fearful, consumers would further reduce spending. Many economists expect that when GDP is revised later this year, the first quarter may even turn out to be positive. The pain is being felt disproportionately by lower-income and Black and Hispanic households, many of whom are struggling to pay for higher-cost essentials like food, gas and rent. And the unemployment rate has sunk to 3.6 percent, near a half-century low.

Here's the Big Thing to know today: The US economy shrank in the second quarter of the year, and that does indeed meet the unofficial criteria for being in ...

"I'm not a fan of either merger," Keyes said. Economists say the biggest reason it would be premature to call a recession based on Thursday's numbers is that the data can and probably will change. "It's clear that over the past two years, the combination of the pandemic, record low mortgage rates and the opportunity to work remotely spurred greater demand," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Frontier was all set to acquire Spirit with a $2.8 billion cash-and-stock deal. That's because Spirit and Frontier, with their ultra-low-cost business models, serve an important role in forcing larger airlines to cut prices. Something's off, of course, but your doctor isn't going to isn't going to give you a diagnoses if they don't actually know what's wrong with you (or we hope they wouldn't, anyway.) That is still significantly higher than this time last year when it was 2.8%. Take the GDP data with a grain of salt, as Powell put it yesterday. A lot of economists, plus President Joe Biden and Fed Chief Jerome Powell, say it's not likely. The debate about "recession" vs "not recession" is mostly semantics, but I get it — it's comforting to be able to put a label on things as a shorthand for everything that feels crummy. "Now, as the market adjusts to a higher rate environment, we are seeing a period of deflated sales activity until the market normalizes." - For starters, every single one of the eight members is White, and in fact the panel has never included a person of color, according to Gary Hoover, co-chair of the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession.

A shrinking GDP doesn't automatically equal an economy in recession. Here's why economists are so hesitant to put a label on this topsy-turvy economy.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates the value of goods and services produced in the economy through an initial set of data that it gathers. The GDI for the second quarter will be released next month, giving a better view of how income levels have fared during this period. “This is not a good GDP report,” Furman said. The economy added a healthy 372,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations. It didn’t declare the recession that began in April 2001 until July 2003. Officially, it is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee that declares a recession. But if you look at the unemployment rate, it is very low,” Swanson said. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee takes a cautious approach to its job. It was the shortest recession in U.S. history. Weighing against the evidence of slowdowns in consumer spending and business investment are other data including, crucially, robust job growth. Yet the last recession declared by NBER — for the period from March to April 2020, when the country was hit by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic — met only the first half of that definition. Back-to-back quarters of negative growth is one commonly used benchmark of recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

She did not discuss the impact that monetary and fiscal stimulus had on price pressures. Consumer and business confidence levels have plunged, with recent surveys showing a solid majority of Americans believe the country is in recession. "We know there are challenges ahead of us. The National Bureau of Economic Research, however, is the official arbiter of recessions, and likely won't rule for months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a glass-half-full assessment of the US economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation ...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy doesn't appear to be in a recession despite two straight quarters of negative gross domestic ...

Yellen, however, said the administration should avoid “a semantic battle” over the economy and focus on how to fix it. Instead, economists turn to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a think tank not affiliated with the government, to make that call. “This is pressure that’s real, that we recognize, and it’s the president’s top priority to bring inflation down.” While two negative quarters has long been a rule of thumb for figuring out when the U.S. is in recession, economists also consider job growth and other areas of the economy when making that judgment. Consumer spending has also continued to rise throughout the decline in GDP, and wages rose 5.1 percent last month alone. Yellen acknowledged that households still face “great stress” from high inflation, which reached an annual rate of 9.1 percent in June, according to Labor Department data.

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FED EYES THE FREEZER AISLE — From NYT’s Jeanna Smialek and Emily Erdos: “If consumers and companies expect fast inflation to be a permanent feature of the American economy, they might begin to shift their behavior in ways that cause prices to keep rising. MAJOR HEALTH CARE COST DRIVER — From WSJ’s David Wainer: “The traveling-nurse market might finally be coming back down to earth. From NYT’s Mike Isaac: “On Wednesday, Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported a 1 percent decline in quarterly revenue from the previous year. MARKET REACTS — From Bloomberg’s Rita Nazareth: “About 85% of the S&P 500 companies rose, while the Nasdaq 100 soared over 4%, the most since November 2020. CBO PROJECTION — AP’s Josh Boak: “The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the end of pandemic-era spending, fast economic growth and higher tax revenues have caused the federal debt this year to be lower than forecast. Debt-related pressures have faded somewhat in the short-term for lawmakers, even as they continue to loom as a troubling risk for future congresses and presidents.” Per POLITICO’s Burgess Everett the deal “ includes roughly $370 billion in energy and climate spending, $300 billion in deficit reduction, three years of subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums, prescription drug reform and significant tax changes." But the nonpartisan office also includes a warning in its 30-year outlook about how debt will soon spiral upward to new highs that could ultimately imperil the U.S. economy. But he did NOT say that the Fed would back off or reverse course if the economy does start to significantly weaken — something markets increasingly seem to expect. “The public doesn't distinguish between core or headline inflation in their thinking,” he said. That may make the numbers appear worse than they are. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession. And with good reason: 10 out of the last 10 times the US economy shrank for ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that he does not think the economy is currently in recession, but yield curves say something else. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July for the third straight month. Household spending grew in June by 1.1%, up from a revised 0.3% increase in May, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. In the 11 times the Fed raised rates, the Fed has successfully avoided recession only three times. in the second quarter, but a slowdown in inventory accumulation removed a whopping 2 percentage points from output. It has yet to use the "recession" label. In May, there were about two open positions for every job seeker, along with historically low levels of layoffs. Consumer spending, the largest part of the US economy, is rising. Last year, businesses stocked up on goods to get ahead of supply chain woes and in anticipation of post-Covid consumer demand, but now they may be overstocked. It also signals that consumer demand could be weakening, another sign of this week, raising fears that the country has entered -- or will soon enter -- recession territory. Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession.

Republicans seize on a drop in GDP to slam Biden and Democrats, but Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen would not say there's a recession.

“There continues to be deep pent-up demand as a result of the pandemic,” Capuano said. "Now, sometimes people use the word recession to refer to that, that's really about inflation." “It's a big deal.”

David L. Bahnsen | What are the political and economic realities? A customer pays for gas at a pump in Rolling Meadow, Ill., on Thursday. Associated ...

Perhaps the tradition of how we have viewed it is good enough (two quarters in a row). Perhaps we want to assign objective data levels to unemployment, industrial production, or some other economic metrics. Economic challenges are certainly here, they are likely to worsen, but it is quite likely that this will prove to be a shallow recession. Economists can debate about how the GDP measurement is weighted, but it has been weighted this way for a long time, meaning it reflects the aggregate measurement of factors we have always used. We do have a traditional understanding, and that understanding has essentially viewed two quarters of GDP contraction as a recession. First, the technical reality: We have no agreed-upon definition of a recession—not governmentally, not academically, and not linguistically. There is no doubt that if the shoes were on the other foot in terms of who held political power and the American economy experienced two quarters in a row of GDP contraction, the Democrats would gleefully declare this a recession.

If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job ...

To combat the doom and gloom, make a practice of staying positive. You want to tap into the people you know and trust for job leads. It's easy to succumb to the never-ending barrage of negative news. Twitter is a valuable medium to share your expertise and wisdom, attract an audience and let them know about your search efforts. The one thing you have is the ability to manage and drive your own career. Explain why you are seeking a new role and concisely share the responsibilities you held at your last couple of jobs. You need to know the differences, so you won’t get offended if a retained recruiter ignores your reach out. Send invitations to people who may have access to the jobs you desire. LinkedIn is an excellent way to start if you are a mid to senior-level, white-collar professional. It would be naive to think that the litany of woes, such as supply chain disruptions, inflation eating into your paycheck and savings, an endless war in Eastern Europe, constant political in-fighting and a steady flow of announced downsizing, won’t impact your job and career. If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job losses, businesses would pick up on their lead and engage in massive cost-cutting initiatives to remain solvent. It doesn’t matter if the United States is in a recession or not.

"It is not entirely clear whether a recession has begun," said Mark Hamrick, Bankrate's senior economic analyst. Here's a look at what consumers are in for ...

That makes this a particularly good time to identify the loans you have outstanding and see if refinancingmakes sense. "All in all, this means that a recession would make it harder for people to get mortgages and to buy homes," Channel said. "If they expect they will be forced to cut back, the sooner they do it, the better off they'll be," Harris said. That may mean cutting a few expenses now that you just want and really don't need, such as the subscription services that you signed up for during the pandemic. And, even if prices fluctuate, "as long as you stay the course and keep making your payments, you'll probably end up being OK." If you don't use it, lose it. - Avoid variable rates. While the impact of a recession would be felt broadly, every household would experience a pullback to a different degree, depending on income, savings and financial standing. "It is not entirely clear whether a recession has begun given the continued strength of the job market," he said. The housing market is in a much better place than it was in the early 2000s, Channel said. Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months." - Here's a look at what consumers are in for in the months ahead, and what they can do about it now.

How are people coping at a time when the economy is struggling? The U.S. economy contracted for the second-straight quarter, which traditionally signals a ...

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Will there be a recession? And, if so, just how bad will it be for my finances? Those questions are looming large for Americans after the Federal Reserve ...

So instead of buying new equipment or hiring a full-time staffer to take advantage of a new business opportunity today, consider renting the equipment or bringing someone in as a contractor. Or, you might consider a new role that is less susceptible to layoffs when the economy is contracting. ... We'll be back to a place where it matters if your home is in good shape," Fratantoni said. What you can do is figure out what resources you have to handle a worst-case scenario, such as job loss or illness, Lima said. While it will become increasingly expensive to take out a mortgage as rates rise, buyers will face less competition for each property. And when it comes to deciding whether to put in an offer, "they may have a couple of days to think about it instead of hours," Fratantoni said. Improve your odds of staying employed: You may not be that highly sought after cybersecurity specialist that every Fortune 500 company wants. That means home sellers will no longer be able to price their properties 15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for. for the second quarter in a row. Companies have been reticent to let go of anybody," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. The White House and other government leaders are saying the economy remains healthy. That's created a lot of mixed signals.

Economic uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. Here are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead.

She said that between January and June, her group distributed over $150,000 in emergency cash assistance to survivors who were having a harder time keeping the lights on and putting food on the table. If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. “It’s a hectic existence,” Galeon said. Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If you think a recession could destabilize yours, here are some things you can do to prepare. Her organization provides housing, food, and cash emergency assistance for people in the community. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added, Her advice is to keep an eye on the monthly fees or service charges that might eat into your savings. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. But, she notes, some people’s immune systems are better able to recover than others.

President Joe Biden held two events Thursday where he made the case that the economy is not in a recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

"But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a rare, stand-alone news conference at the Treasury in between the president's two events. In the past few months, consumer and business confidence levels have plunged. "That is not what we are seeing right now," she said. The leaders of Corning, Marriott International, Bank of America, TIAA and Deloitte were all present, with Marriott's Tony Capuano and Corning's Wendell Weeks attending in person. The official arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, likely won't rule for months. He then listed several companies planning to build factories in the U.S. before concluding, "that doesn't sound like a recession to me." Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter. - Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. "Let me just give you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy," Biden said in a speech that was billed as remarks on the latest budget bill in Congress. "Number one, we have a record job market, and record unemployment of 3.6%, and businesses are investing in America at record rates." - On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter.

GDP scare headlines are misleading, and other more telling measures reveal a Biden economy that's still growing. by Robert Shapiro July 29, 2022 July 29, ...

That growth even outpaced the best periods of recent expansions: Employment rose 1.4 percent in the first two quarters of 1997, 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2005, 1.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2014, and 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2018. Finally, this year’s accelerating inflation contributed to the drop in real GDP by offsetting a growing share of production. This week’s BEA report also shows that real fixed business investment fell at a 0.1 percent rate in the second quarter. Even as the economy’s fundamentals generally remain sound, there is a danger that the Fed’s interest rate hikes may prove too large, dampening demand and employment too much. If employment, consumption, and business investment don’t point to recession, why did real GDP growth go south in the past two quarters? For example, real consumer spending grew 1.8 percent and 1 percent in the first and second quarters. That’s slower than in 2021 but nothing like the first two quarters of the 1990–91 and 2007–09 recessions, when real consumer spending contracted. And measured against the second quarter of 2021, real fixed business investment grew by 3.5 percent. Similarly, over the first two quarters of the recessions of 2001 and 2007–09, employment fell respectively by 761,000 and 426,000 positions, or 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent. Over the first six months of the 1990–91 recession, employment fell by 690,000, or 0.6 percent. That sounds dispiriting, but behind the headline numbers, the basic growth elements provide a more encouraging gauge of the economy’s path and prospects. Those criteria point to continuing growth in the United States.

Prices for gas, food and rent are soaring. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. The U.S. economy has shrunk for ...

If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. The Associated Press receives support from Charles Schwab Foundation for educational and explanatory reporting to improve financial literacy. The Federal Trade Commission's Consumer Advice guide for Getting Out of Debt can help you make a plan. Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added. Some states offer additional local programs for their residents. From housing support and food banks to utility assistance, non-profit organizations around the country can help. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. Knowing how much you spend every month is key. Ma recommends sitting down and writing how much you spend day-to-day.

While the economy shrank for a second straight quarter -- meeting one rule of thumb for a recession -- economists and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are ...

The contraction in second-quarter GDP significantly raises the risk that the economy will fall into recession by year-end. Some of the strength, however, is showing signs of fading as more companies lay off workers due to economic uncertainty. Several economists still see the economy growing in 2022, but the combination of persistent inflation, aggressive Fed tightening, market volatility and weakening demand are daunting hurdles. While achieving a soft landing is still the goal, it’s “gotten more challenging” in recent months, he said. While the economy shrank for a second straight quarter -- meeting one rule of thumb for a recession -- economists and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are skeptical, largely due to a strong labor market. “Based on the available data, we believe broad activity is not yet consistent with a contraction that is typically thought of as recession,” which instead would start early next year, Wells Fargo & Co. economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Seery said in a note.

The official arbiters of US recessions aren't close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022's first half was part of a ...

The committee declares a turning point with a lag of 11 months on average.” “A recession is a sustained and broad-based decline in economic activity, across many sectors of the economy. It’s “very unlikely” a recession started in the first quarter and the data is more mixed on the second quarter, he said. The NBER does include GDP as a factor in its deliberations, but averages it with the less-followed metric of gross domestic income. He declines to comment as a matter of policy on the current economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession.