With the Federal Reserve expected to hike its key interest rate by three-quarters of a percentage point on Wednesday to battle high inflation, ...
The U.S. right now is "a world of paradox." A number of Fed officials at various points since the start of the year have said they thought inflation had peaked, only to be caught out as prices continued to rise faster. New employment data scheduled to be released next week will show whether robust job creation, considered an important strength of the U.S. economy right now, continued in July. The U.S. economy "is likely to have contracted in the first half of the year, but job growth remains robust. General Motors Co (GM.N), for its part, said it had eased hiring and delayed planned spending in response to inflation and to hedge against a possible broader slowdown. Fears of a stalling economy were stoked late on Monday when Walmart Inc (WMT.N), whose massive footprint offers a broad view of consumer behavior, cut its profit outlook and said inflation had pressed shoppers to spend their money on food and fuel instead of higher-margin discretionary items like electronics and apparel. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com To some economists that has heightened the risk of error, since data on prices may lag the impact of rising rates on the economy and prompt the Fed to continue its monetary policy tightening in the midst of a slowdown. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Parts of the U.S. bond market are signaling an increased likelihood of recession, with yields on 2-year U.S. Treasury notes now higher than they are for 10-year Treasuries, a possible sign of lost faith in near-term economic growth and reflecting a possibility the Fed may be forced to cut rates within a relatively short span of time. The anticipated increase in the target federal funds rate, the Fed's key tool in trying to lower inflation from a four-decade high, will bring the U.S. central bank to a mile marker of sorts as it reaches a level of around 2.4% that is estimated to no longer encourage economic activity.
The increase will be the Fed's fourth rate hike to help cool down the economy and lower prices, which are surging at 40-year highs.
Back in June, when the Fed hiked rates by three-quarters of a percentage point, it marked the sharpest action taken by the central bank since 1994. The Fed’s economic forecasts show the unemployment rate rising a bit as interest rates go up — meaning that some workers will lose jobs under the current plan to raise interest rates. At the same time, a host of other signs suggest the United States isn’t in a recession. Second-quarter GDP figures will be released Thursday, and there’s a chance that the economy will have actually shrunk, as it did in the first quarter. A cool-down is apparent in other parts of the economy as well. Higher prices for milk, gas or clothing also sour people’s sense of how the economy is working for them, weighing on consumer sentiment and opening the door for people to change their own spending behavior, and make inflation even worse.
The Federal Reserve is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by another three-quarters of a percentage point amid fears of a looming recession.
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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver the largest back-to-back rate increase in decades on Wednesday, with investors seeking signs he is ...
The rate rise the Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver Wednesday will likely draw a formal objection by a veteran policy maker who was once the ...
More rate rises loom as the year progresses.\n\n“More abrupt changes in interest rates could create strains, either in the economy or financial markets, that would undermine the Fed’s ability to deliver on the higher path of rates communicated,” Ms. George said earlier this month.\n\nMs. George’s objection is unlikely to find much favor with the other officials who vote Wednesday. The policy maker is also set to retire at the start of the new year. The rate rise the Federal Reserve is almost certain to deliver Wednesday will likely draw a formal objection by a veteran policy maker who was once the institution’s most steadfast hawk.\n\nFederal Reserve Bank of Kansas City leader Esther George looks set to vote against the 0.75 percentage point rate rise her colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee seem a lock to deliver, as the Fed continues on its aggressive quest to lower very high levels of inflation.\n\nIf Ms. George dissents, it would mark her second “no” vote this year: She also opposed the three-quarters of a percentage point rate rise in June. Another dissent would be a notable change in disposition relative to other central bankers. The Fed has taken its federal funds target rate range from near zero levels in March to what’s likely between 2.25% and 2.50%, a level last seen at the end of 2018.
The central bank raised rates for the fourth time this year as it attempts to tame prices without causing a severe downturn.
Already, signs abound that the economy is slowing as the Fed begins to push rates higher, with overall growth data, housing market trackers and some metrics of consumer spending showing a pullback. Bringing the economy into balance when supply is constrained — cars are hard to find because of semiconductor shortages, furniture is on back order, and jobs are more plentiful than laborers — could require a big decline in demand. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its fourth interest rate increase of 2022 on Wednesday as it races to tamp down rapid inflation. Mr. Powell started his news conference last month by saying the central bank has “both the tools we need and the resolve that it will take to restore price stability on behalf of American families and businesses.” But that might take a while. Of particular interest will be any sense of how much economic pain the central bank is willing to accept as it tries to rein in rising costs. With a second weak — and potentially negative — gross domestic product number expected on Thursday, the housing market slowing sharply and consumer confidence tanking, Mr. Powell is sure to be asked about the risks of a U.S. recession. Car loans are also expected to climb, but those increases continue to be overshadowed by the rising cost of buying a vehicle and the price you pay for filling it with gas. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point today, and Jerome H. Powell will answer reporter questions at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time. But rapid rate increases could add to the risk of a downturn this year. The Fed has now raised rates to match the peak of its last tightening cycle, in 2018, with an upper limit of 2.5 percent. Consumer prices climbed by 9.1 percent in the year through June, and central bankers are nervous that, after more than a year of rapid cost increases, Americans might begin to expect inflation to last. But it drops a line from the June statement referring to China’s “Covid zero” policy and its impact on supply chains.
The central bank delivered a widely expected 0.75-percentage-point increase in interest rates.
- Opinion: Democrats Campaign for the Trump Guy You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling Customer Service. The central bank’s decision marks the latest step in its fight against inflation, which at 9.1% last month reached its fastest pace in more than 40 years.
The Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by another 0.75 percentage point to help curb inflation. Follow for the latest.
- The economy shrank at a 1.6 percent rate in the first quarter of 2022. "Unfortunately, the Fed has seized on aggressive rate hikes—a big dose of the only medicine at its disposal—even though they are largely ineffective against many of the underlying causes of this inflationary spike." Inflation climbed to 11.3 percent at the wholesale level in June, the U.S. Department of Labor reported. It takes time for that money to materialize in the real world. This has lead to an increase in the price of a bacon, egg and cheese from $2.50 to $4.50. After its two-day meeting, the Fed will likely to impose a second three-quarter-point hike in its benchmark interest rate. In a news release addressing the survey results, AAA said another survey conducted in March found more than half of American drivers said they intended to change how much they drove if gas prices climbed above $4 per gallon. It added that the FOMC "is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective." Russia's war with Ukraine is also contributing to inflation levels in the U.S. and around the world. Meanwhile, the FAO Meat Price Index set "a new record high" in June, with prices nearly 13 percent higher than the same time last year. For the second month in a row, the FOMC has raised interest rates by three-quarters of a point, a move aimed at combatting high inflation. "While another unusually large increase could be appropriate at our next meeting, that is a decision that will depend on the data we get between now and then."