Inflation

While today's headline inflation reading is unacceptably high, it is also out-of-date. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in.

I will continue my historic release of oil from our strategic petroleum reserve. Oil and gas companies must not use this moment as an excuse for profiting by not passing along savings at the pump. Here is what I will do: First, I will continue to do everything I can to bring down the price of gas. Today’s data does not reflect the full impact of nearly 30 days of decreases in gas prices, that have reduced the price at the pump by about 40 cents since mid-June. Those savings are providing important breathing room for American families. Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in inflation.

Prices climbed 9.1 percent from a year earlier, ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

It is also partly because economists have dismissed big price swings in various goods and services as temporary one-offs, and the surprises have just continued to add up. “We have to be so humble about forecasting inflation,” said Blerina Uruci, an economist at T. Rowe Price, who does expect inflation pressures to fade. But the new inflation report also shows evidence of price pressures that have little to do with global supply. As rapid price increases burden many Americans, they are also taking a toll on economic confidence, posing a big challenge for Mr. Biden and Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. Costs for goods including sporting equipment and televisions have already begun to cool. Democrats have suggested things will soon get better, pointing out that, as fuel costs subside, overall inflation is likely to decline from its 9.1 percent reading in June. For consumers, the fresh report is confirmation that it is increasingly tough to make ends meet. That could perpetuate rapid inflation, making it much trickier for the Fed to stamp it out. The global economy has been buffeted by a series of shocks that have pushed inflation higher since the outset of the pandemic. Even a 0.75-point increase would be an unusually quick pace for a central bank that has tended to move gradually in recent decades. The central bank has sped up those rate moves as price increases have proved surprisingly stubborn, and the new inflation report spurred speculation that the Fed might turn even more aggressive. She explained that she had expected a high number, so the report did not sway her.

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"The Gap's failure is all about its lack of leadership," said Mark Cohen, the director of retail studies at Columbia University's business school. (True story: My mom and I used to drive over an hour to a mall in Kansas City simply because it had a Gap that our smaller local mall lacked). It was the most expensive Champagne ever sold at auction (and I hope it tastes like vinegar). RIP, 1998 fashion). It won over moms, celebrities and suburban kids who were neither edgy enough to pull off the grunge look nor wealthy enough for the preppy-chic aesthetic. Those recessions, and the ones that preceded them, were defined by a high unemployment. Before Wednesday's disastrous CPI report, the smart money was on another 50- or 75 basis point increase, aka a half or three-quarters of a percentage point. If we were grading the Fed on these fronts, it'd be getting an A on the employment front — jobless rates are near a 50-year low and hiring is going strong. That big of a jump is unprecedented in modern history. In previous reports, the headline figure was frequently pushed higher by a few outliers, like car prices or health care or rent. If it goes too hard, however, demand could crater and push the economy into a recession.) Wall Street also let out a guttural cry on the news this morning. - Inflation is hot across the board.

Lower-income and Black and Hispanic Americans have been hit especially hard. Gas prices are listed on a board at a filling station ...

Forty percent of adults said in a June AP-NORC poll that they thought tackling inflation should be a top government priority this year, up from just 14 percent who said so in December. In addition, shipping costs and commodity prices have begun to fall. The ongoing price increases underscore the brutal impact that inflation has inflicted on many families, with the costs of necessities, in particular, rising much faster than average incomes.

Inflation was sharply higher in June, according to new inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

And that means the higher interest rate hikes, but it brings more recession risks moving forward." "Energy alone comprised nearly half of the monthly increase in inflation," Biden said. 'What everyone's worried about is this day's inflation data or what happened yesterday, so [the Fed is] having to work with backward-looking information in order to make forward-looking decisions," she said. The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by at least 75 basis points at its next monetary policymaking meeting on July 26-27. Gasoline and crude oil prices are now below $100 per barrel, down from their highs in June. last month, with the national average topping $5 a gallon across the country.

Inflation hit a new, 40-year high in June, with consumer prices up 9.1% from a year ago. Gas prices were a big part of this, but the cost of essentials like ...

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Inflation's relentless surge didn't merely persist in June. It accelerated. For the 12 months ending in June, the government's consumer price index rocketed ...

The IMF foresees 8.7 percent inflation in poorer emerging market and developing countries, the highest such rate since 2008. A recovering job market — employers added a record 6.7 million jobs last year and a healthy average of 457,000 a month so far this year — means that Americans as a whole can afford to keep spending. And some argued that the Fed kept rates near zero far too long, lending fuel to runaway spending and inflated prices in stocks, homes and other assets. The strong job market is boosting workers’ pay, though not enough to offset higher prices. When the pandemic paralyzed the economy in the spring of 2020 and lockdowns kicked in, businesses closed or cut hours and consumers stayed home as a health precaution, employers slashed a breathtaking 22 million jobs. The inflation of the 1970s and early 1980s peaked at 14.8 percent in March 1980 before the Fed exorcized high prices with aggressive rate hikes that caused brutal back-to-back recessions in 1980 and 1981-1982. But instead of sinking into a prolonged downturn, the economy staged an unexpectedly rousing recovery, fueled by vast infusions of government aid and emergency intervention by the Fed, which slashed rates among other things. Now, most economists expect inflation to remain painfully elevated well after this year, with demand outstripping supplies in numerous areas of the economy. Critics blamed, in part, President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package, with its $1,400 checks to most households, for overheating an economy that was already sizzling on its own. For months, Powell and some others characterized high inflation as merely a “transitory” phenomenon while the economy rebounded from the pandemic recession faster than anyone had anticipated. So the Fed has radically changed course by imposing a succession of large rate hikes. In February 2021, the consumer price index was running just 1.7 percent above its level a year earlier.

President Joe Biden speaks about gas prices at the White House on June 22, 2022. (CNN) The White House has been so wrong, ...

And the President's political exposure from inflation is not limited to the midterms. The impact of gas prices on Wednesday's inflation data helps explains why it might be politically smart for Biden to lobby Saudi Arabia, despite branding it a "pariah" over the murder and dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. One of the most pernicious impacts of inflation is that in order to fight it, the Federal Reserve And flooding oil markets is unlikely to solve one of the key issues keeping gasoline prices high -- a lack of refining capacity. "We have let the genie out of the bottle." The inflation crisis is particularly uncomfortable for Biden since he's always prided himself on maintaining a genuine connection with middle class and blue collar Americans, which is central to his brand. The bad news for Democrats is that while Biden is predicting a fall in inflation, it is unlikely to be large enough to offset voter frustration in time for the midterms. -- a scenario that would strangle his domestic program -- the impact of inflation is cutting deep. Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Wednesday that there is unlikely to be a quick turnaround. The corrosive political nature of inflation is being exacerbated by the fact that it hasn't really been a threat for decades in Western economies, so voters are unaccustomed to it. And Biden is hardly the only Western leader saddled by high prices following pandemic-caused supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. Baldwin is not up for reelection in November but the race for her state's other Senate seat

Prices climbed 9.1 percent from a year earlier, ramping up pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates.

It is also partly because economists have dismissed big price swings in various goods and services as temporary one-offs, and the surprises have just continued to add up. But the new inflation report also shows evidence of price pressures that have little to do with global supply. “We have to be so humble about forecasting inflation,” said Blerina Uruci, an economist at T. Rowe Price, who does expect inflation pressures to fade. As rapid price increases burden many Americans, they are also taking a toll on economic confidence, posing a big challenge for Mr. Biden and Democrats ahead of the midterm elections. For consumers, the fresh report is confirmation that it is increasingly tough to make ends meet. Costs for goods including sporting equipment and televisions have already begun to cool. That could perpetuate rapid inflation, making it much trickier for the Fed to stamp it out. Democrats have suggested things will soon get better, pointing out that, as fuel costs subside, overall inflation is likely to decline from its 9.1 percent reading in June. The global economy has been buffeted by a series of shocks that have pushed inflation higher since the outset of the pandemic. Even a 0.75-point increase would be an unusually quick pace for a central bank that has tended to move gradually in recent decades. The central bank has sped up those rate moves as price increases have proved surprisingly stubborn, and the new inflation report spurred speculation that the Fed might turn even more aggressive. She explained that she had expected a high number, so the report did not sway her.

After decades of deflation, some money managers see the prospect of Japanese inflation as good news. Here's how to play it.

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Brokerage pioneer Thomas Peterffy spoke with Forbes about his economic outlook, and when he expects the market to bottom out.

“I do not believe the Fed will follow through on its ‘do what it takes’ promise [to bring down inflation], because they are afraid of destroying the economy and the exploding debt issue,” he says. But Peterffy does not expect to see a repeat of the 1980s, when Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker jacked up interest rates to double-digits, inducing a crushing recession but stamping out inflation. The S&P 500 index has already slumped more than 20% from its record high last November. A majority of traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise benchmark interest rates by at least 75 basis points, or even one full percentage point, later this month. He suggests the S&P 500 could drop to as low as 3,000 around October —- a 21% drop from its current value of about 3,800. Instead, according to Peterffy, the Fed will cap benchmark rates around 4% and as a result, inflation will hover around 6% for the next several years — There will be stagflation for a while,” he predicts.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday released its report on consumer price index (CPI) inflation in June and it was dismal.

From a policy perspective, the report locks in another 75 basis point rise in the Fed’s policy rate at its next meeting (with a 50/50 chance it goes for a full 100 basis points). The White House was out in advance of the report arguing that it would not reflect recent declines in global oil and gasoline prices. Shelter alone is one-third of the CPI, has uninterrupted inflation acceleration since January 2021, and (because of rental contracts) operates with a bit of a lag. Interestingly, health spending – which is a notorious cost problem – is much more moderate: Hospital services were up at a 3.7 percent annual rate, physicians’ services increased by 1.2 percent, and prescription drugs rose at a 1.2 percent rate. The greatest hits are that top-line inflation was 9.1 percent (year-over-year), up from 8.6 percent in May and (as usual) at a four-decade high. The Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday released its report on consumer price index (CPI) inflation in June and it was dismal. Eakinomics has long stipulated that economists are that breed of human who finds the dark cloud for any silver lining.

Inflation at the wholesale level climbed 11.3% in June compared with a year earlier, the latest painful reminder that inflation is running hot through the ...

The U.S. inflation surge erupted from the swift rebound from the 2020 pandemic recession, and it steadily accelerated as spending outstripped the availability of labor and supplies. The strength of the U.S. job market, with robust hiring and unemployment at a near-half-century low, means that more people have paychecks to spend, which will keep upward pressure on prices. On a month-to-month basis, wholesale inflation rose 1.1% from May to June, also the biggest jump since March. It has also diminished the public’s approval of President Joe Biden and dimmed Democratic prospects in the November congressional elections. Producer prices have surged nearly 18% for goods and nearly 8% for services compared with June 2021. But even excluding food and energy prices, which can swing wildly from month to month, producer prices in June jumped 8.2% from June 2021.

The producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, accelerated again in June, the Labor Department said ...

The consecutively bad reports will likely solidify a series of aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve as policymakers race to catch up with runaway inflation. Rampant inflation has become a major political liability for President Biden ahead of the November midterm elections, in which Democrats are expected to lose their already razor-thin majorities. "The Bank of Canada increased rates by 1% on Wednesday, the first G7 country to make such a move to curb inflation in this cycle, and it’s likely the U.S. will follow suit." It marks the fastest pace of inflation since December 1981. Overall, prices for goods jumped 2.4% last month, the sixth consecutive rise and the biggest contributor to the headline inflation figure. Meanwhile, the services index advanced 0.4% in June, with increases in transportation and warehousing services accounting for about two-thirds of the gain.

The consumer price index increased 9.1% from a year ago in June, the fastest pace since 1981. CNBC's Emily Lorsch explains inflation and what causes it.

That marked the fastest pace for inflation in four decades. Inflation hit a new high since 1981. CPI jumped to 9.1% last month from a year ago, above the 8.8% Dow Jones estimate.

Economic forecasts from blue chip prognosticators and the Federal Reserve itself often miss the bullseye. But predictions on inflation over the last two years ...

And he’s bristled at reporting that his use of the highly secure, private building is “secret.” Joshua Schulte, who chose to defend himself at a New York City retrial, had told jurors in closing arguments that the CIA and FBI made him a scapegoat for an embarrassing public release of a trove of CIA secrets by WikiLeaks in 2017. They said the precaution was put in place by Biden’s doctor following a rise in cases of Covid-19 variants. This comes in response to a wave of reports that pharmacies in states with abortion bans are refusing to not only fill prescriptions for abortion and contraception pills but also other medications that they speculate could be used off-label to terminate a pregnancy. The doctor’s sudden order minimizes the risk that such a picture will flash across TV screens in the coming days. The Fed’s Washington-based board has been without a point person on bank regulation since October, during an especially risky moment for the financial system as lenders deal with soaring inflation, rising interest rates and disruption caused by the war in Ukraine. But the Fed dreads the idea of a wage/price spiral in which more dollars are chasing limited supplies of goods and services. The previously unreported dinners, which were described to POLITICO by four attendees, provide a window into Trump’s deliberations and show how he has quietly begun to reassemble the political network that he cultivated in the White House. With other potential Republican candidates circling, holding their own donor meetings and making plans for 2024 runs, the former president is taking subtle but concrete steps to prepare for his next campaign. — Jan. 6 panel talking with Justice Department about false Trump electors: For the first time, January 6 Committee Chair Bennie Thompson confirmed that the Justice Department has engaged the committee on some of the evidence they’ve obtained. All of this is a political nightmare for Biden and Democrats staring down potentially big losses in the midterm elections. All this means the Fed is absolutely on track to jack interest rates up another three quarters of a point later this month. But even so-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, dipped just a touch on an annual basis to 5.9 percent (still super high) from 6.0 percent in May. Wall Street expected a bigger dip to 5.7 percent to confirm the idea that the worst was over.

NPR's Steve Inskeep speaks with William Spriggs, economist for the AFL-CIO, about inflation, which hit 9.1% for the twelve months ending in June.

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