ADP

Corbin Young analyzes five players who are outperforming ADP to find out if their success will continue. Is it time to bail on Nestor Cortes?

Unsurprisingly, Cortes relies primarily on the four-seamer (39.7 percent) and cutter (36.7 percent) with quality results, especially on the cut fastball. As a flyball pitcher (48.4 percent), Cortes has kept home runs in check with a 1.16 HR/9 and 10.3 HR/FB%. But those rates are likely unsustainable, as are his .243 BABIP and 87.1 LOB%, which could mean his numbers are due to regress. The Yankees had a 7-2 lead entering the bottom of the fourth, but Bobby Dalbec and Trevor Story hit solo home runs off Cortes before leaving the game. Assuming health, Cron's 12.3 barrel% (83rd percentile) remains similar to past seasons, and he's pacing for a career-high 35-plus home runs. Cortes relies on command and control with a 27.4 K% and 5.7 BB%, translating to a 21.7 K-BB%, similar to his 2021 numbers. Cron is getting lucky with a .349 BABIP versus a career .301 BABIP, as his batted ball profile looks nearly identical to the career norms. The batting average, plus strikeout and walk rates, remain similar to last season, but the BABIP dropped from .332 in 2021 to .300 in 2022. Interestingly, we have three four-category hitters posting Round 1 numbers in Cron, Yordan Alvarez and Pete Alonso. That doesn't mean we should draft these players in the first round, but it's a massive profit when you hit on these guys. The graph below shows the rolling FB% and wOBA. The batting average, plus strikeout and walk rates, remain similar to last season, but the BABIP dropped from .332 in 2021 to .300 in 2022. Or do the skills point to regression? Or do the skills point to regression?