Inflation kicked up to 8.6% and the hotter-than-expected reading prompted Barclays to say the Fed could raise rates by 75 basis points next week.
The 10-year yield soared 12 basis points to 3.16%. Around the markets, lumber prices have hit their lowest point in nine months as mortgage demand sinks. Barclays now expects the Fed to increase the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at its June 14 to 15 meeting. "We think the US central bank now has good reason to surprise markets by hiking more aggressively than expected in June," Barclays said on Friday. "Everything" in the May inflation report was strong turning stronger, from energy to used vehicle and airline prices, it said. The Nasdaq Composite dropped by roughly 5.6% for the week, moving further into a bear market . The recent bear-market rally in US stocks has fizzled as investors expect more inflation and rate shocks, Bank of America said Friday. - Barclays said it now saw the Fed raising rates by 75 basis points next week.
What drove markets? The stock market dropped as investors worried that surging inflation's bigger than anticipated jump in May will prompt the Federal Reserve ...
We expect household sentiment will remain historically depressed in the near term as inflation risks remain tilted to the upside and pocketbooks continue to feel the squeeze from widespread price pressures throughout the economy,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in a note. “This was a very bad inflation report for both the White House and Fed,” wrote Edward Moya, senior market analyst for the Americas at OANDA, in an emailed note. The consumer-price index showed the so-called core rate of inflation, which omits food and energy, rose 0.6% in May, a tick higher than expected. - In Asia, the Shanghai CompositeSHCOMP,rose 1.4% Friday for a weekly gain of 2.8%. The Hang Seng Index “The Fed’s latest mistake is that they did not act strongly to cool inflation, and they will now be forced to deliver more rate hikes as inflation is clearly not transitory and not ready to peak.” Meanwhile, Americans’ expectations for overall inflation over the next year rose in June to 5.4% from 3.3% in May. Consumer expectations for inflation over the next 5 years jumped to 3.3% from 3% in the prior month. “The surge in gasoline prices to record levels will likely continue to filter into household inflation expectations if elevated prices persist well into the summer. The University of Michigan’s gauge of consumer sentiment fell sharply to a record low reading of 50.2, down from a May reading of 58.4. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a June reading of 59. But the increase in the core rate over the past year slowed to 6% from 6.2%. “We are revising our forecast to increase the probability here that we do see a hard landing” for the U.S. economy, said Roland, explaining that it’s now more likely that the Fed will be tightening into a recession as it tries to bring down the cost of living. “The hotter-than-expected CPI reading is challenging the peak inflation story,” said Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, in a phone interview Friday. The soaring 8.6% rate of inflation seen in the 12 months through May is the highest since 1981. For the week, the Dow dropped 4.6%, the S&P 500 slid 5.1% and the Nasdaq tumbled 5.6%. All three major benchmarks book a second straight week of declines and their biggest weekly loss since January, according to Dow Jones Market Data.
S&P 500, Dow and Nasdaq slide as inflation shows no signs of abating. May CPI inflation accelerated 8.6%, faster than forecasts for 8.2%.
The growing expectation is for the Fed to raise its key short-term interest rate by half a percentage point at each of its next three meetings, beginning next week. Wall Street took Friday’s reading to mean the Fed’s foot will remain firmly on the brakes for the economy, dashing hopes that it may ease up later this year. Only once since 2000 has the Fed raised rates by that much, last month. The Fed's moves on interest rates heavily influence that second part. Now “easy mode” for investors is abruptly and forcefully getting switched off. Since early in the pandemic, record-low interest rates engineered by the Fed and other central banks helped keep investment prices high.
An afternoon rally helped the major indexes snap their short skid. But Twitter accepting Elon Musk's bid stole the spotlight.
And while they still view RBLX as the best-positioned name for long-term growth opportunities in the gaming/interactive universe, "we have increasing concerns around the post-pandemic environment and expect a continuation of slowing growth, tough comps, & normalization of margins in the near term." Investors can also drill down on sectors that are typically considered more "inflation-proof" than others – namely, healthcare, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. We do expect a slowdown in consumer spending as inflation and uncertainties weigh heavily on sentiment." Analysts, on average, were expecting earnings of 38 cents per share on $581.8 million in revenue. Also released this morning was the University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index for June, which arrived at 50.2 – down 14.2% from May, the lowest value this decades-old indicator has reported. In its first quarter, DOCU reported adjusted earnings per share of 38 cents on revenue of $588.7 million. "Whether this translates to more aggressive hikes this summer, or a continuation of 50 basis point [a basis point is one-one hundredth of a percentage point] hikes this fall is the option for the Fed, but the overall reality for the Fed is that inflation is not under control, and they have their work cut out for them in the coming months," Ripley adds. Specifically, the CPI surged 8.6% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since December 1981. "From a Fed perspective, the chase continues, and more aggressive Fed measures will likely be needed to catch up to runaway inflation," says Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Management. Both figures were higher than what economists were expecting. "The crash in sentiment means that consumers are more and more worried about future economic conditions," says Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for independent broker-dealer LPL Financial. "We need to listen to what consumers say but more importantly, we need to watch what consumers do. According to the report, 46% of survey respondents pointed to inflation for their negative outlook toward the economy, up 38% from last month.
The S&P 500 shed 2.7% and the Nasdaq dropped about 3%. The May consumer price index rose 8.6% year-over-year, its highest level since 1981. Economists had ...
The S&P 500 is now down about 19% from its record high in January and is once again approaching bear territory. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy, and a real decrease in that spending would be a huge blow to gross domestic product. The core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 6%, slightly higher than estimates of 5.9%. The Dow had its 10th down week in 11 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq its ninth losing week in the past 10. The May consumer price index rose 8.6% year-over-year, its highest level since 1981. "We think the US central bank now has good reason to surprise markets by hiking more aggressively than expected in June," wrote Barclays analysts in a research note on Friday. "We realize it is a close call and that it could play out in either June or July. But we are changing our forecast to call for a 75 [basis point] hike on June 15."
The central bank won't be coming to the market's rescue.
But the central bank hasn’t had to deal with inflation like this in decades. That might seem hard to believe, with a Fed that is known for flinching at the first sign of market pain. And that means there is more pain ahead for the stock market.
The index ended just a hair above 3,900, or its lowest level in about three weeks. The Dow sank by 880 points, or 2.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.5% by ...
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Stocks finished sharply lower Friday after consumer sentiment data from the University of Michigan showed confidence levels falling to a record low in June.
The dollar index rose 0.9% against a basket of six global currencies to 104.18. Growth prospects are also in focus as a result of the inflation surge, and while Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a New York Times 'Deal Book' event last night that there is "nothing to suggest that a recession is in the works", the U.S. economy did contract sharply over the first quarter and is now only expanding at a 0.9% clip, according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecasting tool. Part of that discussion is linked to the European Central Bank's recent hawkishness, and bets that Christine Lagarde and her colleagues will lift rates this summer, with more hikes in the fall, as inflation hits record highs in the single-currency area. And while a 50 basis point rate hike from the Fed next week is a virtual lock, the CME Group's FedWatch tool now suggests an 45.8% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike in July, up from just 10% a month ago. On inflation, the headline consumer price index for the month of May was estimated to have risen 8.6% from last year, up from the 8.3% pace recorded in April and well ahead of the Street consensus forecast of 8.3%. The May reading was the fastest since December of 1981. So-called core inflation, which strips-out volatile components such as food and energy prices, rose 0.6% on the month, and 6% on the year, the report noted, with the both the annual and monthly reading coming in ahead of the Street consensus forecast.