Stagflation

2022 - 6 - 7

World Bank slashes global growth forecast to 2.9%, warns of 1970s ... (CNBC)

The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast and warned that many countries could fall into recession.

For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid," World Bank President David Malpass said. Clear parallels exist between then and now, it said. - "For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid," World Bank President David Malpass said. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the resultant surge in commodity prices have compounded existing Covid pandemic-induced damage to the global economy, which the World Bank said is now entering what may be "a protracted period of feeble growth and elevated inflation." The World Bank on Tuesday slashed its global growth forecast and warned that many countries could fall into recession as the economy slips into a period of stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s. - The bank warned that the world economy could slip into a period of stagflation reminiscent of the 1970s.

World Bank warns global economy may suffer 1970s-style stagflation (The Washington Post)

The global economy may be headed for years of weak growth and rising prices, a toxic combination that will test the stability of dozens of countries still ...

That could lead to a more punishing global slump and financial crises in some emerging markets, the bank said. And wheat has staged a similar rally, leading the bank to call for urgent action to ease “worldwide food shortages.” By 1982, global growth hovered near zero even as worldwide inflation surged into double digits, according to the World Bank. And the bank’s sister institution, the International Monetary Fund, lowered its global forecast in April. The World Bank’s downbeat forecast adds to concerns about global weakness. The global economy was expected to struggle this year as it adjusted to the loss of pandemic-era government spending and ultralow interest rates. In the 1970s, Latin American countries, in particular, borrowed heavily from U.S. banks, taking advantage of low inflation-adjusted interest rates. A recession in Europe is a real possibility, as the continent struggles to accommodate nearly 7 million Ukrainian refugees and deal with upheavals in energy markets. The S&P 500 stock index, already down more than 13 percent this year, could lose an additional 20 percent or more, according to a recent client note from Bank of America. Global growth this year will be roughly half of last year’s annualized rate and is expected to show little improvement in 2023 and 2024. The World Bank’s Malpass said the global economy is being hampered by inadequate production capacity for key goods. And the situation could get even worse if the Ukraine war fractures global trade and financial networks or soaring food prices spark social unrest in importing countries.

Recession will be 'hard to avoid' as stagflation risks rise: World Bank (Yahoo Finance)

In its updated Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank slashed its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9%, down from 4.1% in January.

You can select 'Manage settings' for more information and to manage your choices. You can change your choices at any time by visiting Your Privacy Controls. Find out more about how we use your information in our Privacy Policy and Cookie Policy. Click here to find out more about our partners. - Information about your device and internet connection, including your IP address

Stagflation Risk Rises Amid Sharp Slowdown in Growth (World Bank Group)

Compounding the damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has magnified the slowdown in the global economy, which is entering what ...

For more, see regional overview. For more, see regional overview. For more, see regional overview. Forecasts for 2022 growth have been revised down in nearly 70 percent of EMDEs, including most commodity importing countries as well as four-fifths of low-income countries. It will also involve vigorous supply responses at the national level while keeping global commodity markets functioning well. Higher energy prices will lower real incomes, raise production costs, tighten financial conditions, and constrain macroeconomic policy especially in energy-importing countries. Global inflation is expected to moderate next year but it will likely remain above inflation targets in many economies. More importantly, unlike the 1970s, central banks in advanced economies and many developing economies now have clear mandates for price stability, and, over the past three decades, they have established a credible track record of achieving their inflation targets. The recovery from the stagflation of the 1970s required steep increases in interest rates in major advanced economies, which played a prominent role in triggering a string of financial crises in emerging market and developing economies. “The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth. As a result of the damage from the pandemic and the war, the level of per capita income in developing economies this year will be nearly 5 percent below its pre-pandemic trend. This raises the risk of stagflation, with potentially harmful consequences for middle- and low-income economies alike.

The World Bank says most countries are headed for a recession ... (Fortune)

High inflation and slow economic growth could mean a return of 1970s-style stagflation.

Resuming normal supply-chain operations and increasing production around the world are key to avoiding stagflation, Malpass said, but it won’t be easy. Stagflation occurs when economic growth goes through a significant slowdown, but inflation and high prices persist. In the U.S., Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a rapid rise in prices have pushed the Federal Reserve into a strategy of aggressive interest rate hikes to tame inflation, but this is making investors increasingly skittish. The World Bank, which acts as an international lending body for developing economies, had forecasted 4.1% growth for 2022 last January. But the World Bank is warning that even a mild recession could leave lasting scars on the global economy, as the combination of today’s economic forces could lead to “stagflation,” a mixture of low growth and high prices that is toxic to economies in developing countries. Investors, bankers, and entrepreneurs have been discussing the chances of a coming recession for months.

Stagflation and Recession Warnings Plague U.K. Businesses (The New York Times)

Higher prices plus a labor shortfall plus a national economic contraction make it hard to plan for the future.

At the Bank of England, officials have been surprised by the scale and persistence of the drop in the size of the labor force since the start of the pandemic, as long-term sickness keeps hundreds of thousands out of work. But the country should avoid a recession, he said, and next year his outlook tentatively improves. The price she would need to pay is about to more than double. In St. Albans, about 200 businesses use a WhatsApp group to support one another and share tips on how they can save money, such as swapping furniture and catering equipment. Running beneath all of this is Brexit. A large European labor pool is no longer easily accessible, or as interested in working in Britain. During the pandemic, encouraged by lockdowns, more European Union citizens have left Britain than arrived. While statisticians say most of the acceleration in inflation can be attributed to energy, above-average price increases are spreading to more goods and services. Raindrops on Roses, a gift store in St. Albans, hasn’t been able to avoid increasing some of its prices. The jump is almost as large as the increase that happened in April. (The cap doesn’t apply to businesses’ energy bills.) He has been insulated from soaring gas and electricity prices by a fixed contract, but expects his energy costs to rise in November to £48,000 a year from £19,000. At his other pub, The Boot, a stone’s throw away in St. Albans, energy costs will triple. Britain is experiencing the fastest pace in consumer price growth in four decades, with a 9 percent inflation rate. Instead Britain is staring down the specter of stagflation, a ruinous mix of stagnant economic growth and rapid inflation.

As Gas Prices Break Records, World Bank Warns of 1970s-Style ... (Newsweek)

The price of gas in the U.S. hit an all-time high national average of $4.91 per gallon on Tuesday.

The World Bank said that inflation around the world was "expected to moderate next year," but could remain above targets in "many economies." In addition to current economic conditions potentially setting off 1970s-style stagflation, concerns have also been raised that pressure at the pumps could go beyond sky-high fuel prices. Malpass also warned that "pain of stagflation could persist for several years" even if a global recession is avoided. "The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth," World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement. It said that economic growth in "advanced economies" was projected to decelerate from 5.1 percent in 2021 to 2.6 percent in 2022, with a further deceleration to 2.2 percent expected by 2023. "For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid.