S&P 500

Summary · What will happen to the stock market over the next year? · We take a deep dive into the changing demographics of the US, the problematic fiscal ...

This is reflective of both the demographic and fiscal challenges we have and the power of technology to continue to deliver gains despite stiff headwinds. From the bottom in earnings, I think profits will grind out steady growth to $300 per share in 10 years, which is good for a 4.7% CAGR from the post-boom level I expect profits to adjust to. The first is whether the current level of earnings and multiple is sustainable or is at a cyclical high. I've probably given Russia and China too much of the benefit of the doubt over the last few years, but this allows for the world to be less interconnected in ways that cause conflict. Political solutions could also help unlock growth in the US – fixing our healthcare and education systems could unlock a lot of money for taxpayers and consumers who have had enough of paying through the nose for subpar results. Taxes and interest rates are not likely to go down over the next 10 years and may have to go up substantially in the case of taxes. The only example that the modern monetary theorists use for a country that has gotten away with this level of debt is Japan, but Japan isn't as indebted as it looks (their central bank owns tons of stocks and they lend a lot of money from one government agency to the other), and actually has had a lot of issues with debt. For every bad example of how big tech has created chaos, there's an example of how startups have gone on to disrupt industries and pave the way to growth. The most likely way this gets done is with a large national sales ta x– or VAT – something you're likely to be hearing a lot about in the next couple of elections. The consensus of Wall Street analysts, on the other hand, is to expect earnings to sustain at current levels and increase at historically unprecedented levels from here. The first thing you should know about the short-term outlook for the S&P 500 is that stocks are in a downtrend. Finally, we'll close with my projections for the price of the S&P 500 in 10 years, and key takeaways for investors.