The iPhone maker's Worldwide Developers Conference, known as WWDC, could be important for Apple's shares โ and the overall market this week.
He said there are three big issues for Apple. First, there is the state of the consumer and the appetite for its products. "However, over the last three years, Apple's stock performance following WWDC has been more pronounced, outperforming the S & P 500 by ~400bps in the week following the event, and ~800bps in the month following WWDC ... indicating that perhaps Apple's summer developer conference has become a more important stock catalyst than in prior years," wrote Morgan Stanley's Erik Woodring. Rocky times ahead for shares? Apple holds a lot of sway over the broader market indexes, since it is in the Dow, the S & P 500 , and the Nasdaq Composite. It also is a big part of the Invesco QQQ ETF , which is based on the Nasdaq 100. Apple's high was $151.74 last week, and its high Friday was $147.97. For the S & P 500, surpassing last week's high of 4,176 would be a positive, and it could then retrace toward 4,200, Redler said. There have been two other "death cross" formations for Apple in the past 20 years and the stock was negative over the next month and week, according to Bespoke. But Apple was up by double digits a year later. Ferragu said new products are the key for Apple. "So the more incremental we learn about the headset this week, the more likely a 2023 launch is and the more likely this headset can have a positive influence on earnings growth over the next five years," he said. "If they sell the event, and Apple goes red, it's going to be hard for the S & P 500 and the QQQs to show traction," said Scott Redler, chief strategic officer at T3Live.com. "If Apple shows some power, that could fuel the move." The 50-day moving average is a shorter-term momentum indicator, simply calculated based on the average of the last 50 closing prices. Morgan Stanley analysts note that over 10 years, Apple's event hasn't been a major catalyst, and its stock underperformed by 100 basis points in the week following the event. A lot of things are going to have to go right for the S & P 500 get back above and stay above 4,176," he said. Redler said it would be important for the stock to hold at $148 apiece. Apple's hefty market capitalization means a big day for the stock could be an important one for the market.