Inflation

2022 - 5 - 11

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Live Updates: April CPI Report and Inflation News (The New York Times)

Inflation data shows a modest deceleration, but prices are still climbing at a brisk pace, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain strong.

This study suggests, however, that high-frequency spending categories like food tend to motivate consumer psychology more than changes in the cost of rent, for example, which most people encounter only once a year. Policymakers have been struggling to avoid a “wage-price spiral,” in which price and wage increases become self-reinforcing and escalate out of control. “What stands out in April 2022 is the above-average increases in food prices,” the office said in a statement. Consumer prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in April, the Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday, citing preliminary figures that are adjusted to make them comparable with inflation data from other E.U. countries. Agricultural prices started to skyrocket in the second half of last year, meaning year-over-year price increases will start to look less steep since they are measured from a higher starting point. The interest rate resets every six months and is linked to the rate of inflation. But in the process, the Fed has disrupted financial markets and contributed to big price reductions for stocks and bonds. White House officials in recent weeks have repeatedly referred to “ Putin’s price hike,” a reference to the role that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played in driving up oil and gas prices. On Tuesday, Mr. Biden said in a speech at the White House that inflation was his “top domestic priority” and that his administration was taking whatever steps it could to try to reduce costs. But 67 percent of respondents in the survey — including 42 percent of Republicans — said they approved of the law, the same level of support as when it passed last year. The pickup in housing costs is an especially big deal, because they make up about a third of the overall inflation index. The reality that annual inflation has possibly peaked will give the White House and Fed a positive talking point and a dose of comfort.

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

Soaring inflation slowed in April. Will it bring a bit of relief to price ... (USA TODAY)

The consumer price index increased 8.3% annually, down from 8.5% in March, as a drop in gasoline prices offset a continuing run-up in food, rent and other costs ...

Breakfast cereal prices rose 2.4% in April and are up 12.1% from a year ago, and bread costs increased 2% and 9.1% yearly. Consumers’ pivot to more spending on services, along with worker shortages that propelled wages higher, drive up a different set of prices. Rent climbed 0.6% monthly and 4.8% from a year ago. Grocery costs jumped 1% monthly and 10.8% from a year ago. Much of the slowdown in the yearly measure reflected a 6.1% monthly drop in gas prices. Fish was up 0.9% and 13% annually. But the monthly rise in core prices "indicates that underlying inflation pressures are stronger than we had expected." Pork chop prices rose 1.9% monthly and 14% annually. That has begun moderating increases in the price of furniture, appliances and other items. Clothing prices fell 0.8% monthly, lowering the annual rise to 5.4%. But the 3,300-mile trip will cost an extra $550 or so in gas, so they decided to skip it this year. Regular unleaded hit a record $4.37 a gallon Tuesday, up from $4.12 a month ago, according to AAA.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

April CPI report: US inflation slowed last month for the first time since ... (CNN)

The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had ...

"Inflation remains widespread, making it all the more difficult to curtail," wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese in a note to clients. Food prices rose 0.9% last month and 9.4% year over year, the biggest jump since April 1981. That means it's uncertain how much the pace of inflation can slow down until these things are resolved. But there are still a lot of factors that will keep prices elevated over the summer. Businesses have been building up their inventories, which helps core inflation on the goods side, while prices in the services sector are soaring as Americans return to traveling and other leisure activities. Year-over-year, housing costs are up 5.1%.

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US inflation hit 8.3% last month but slows from 40-year high (ABC News)

Inflation slowed in April after months of relentless gains, a tentative sign that price increases may be peaking while still imposing a financial strain on ...

Wednesday's figures will keep the Fed on track to implement what may become its fastest series of interest rate increases in 33 years, economists said. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark short-term rate by a half-point, its steepest increase in two decades. Food prices rose 1% from March to April and nearly 11% from a year ago. Price increases decelerated last August and September, suggesting at the time that higher inflation might be temporary, as many economists — and officials at the Federal Reserve — had suggested. The escalation of consumer inflation has forced many Americans, particularly people with lower or fixed incomes, to reduce their spending on things like driving and grocery shopping. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the smallest increase in eight months. Used cars and other goods drove much of the initial inflation spike last year as Americans stepped up spending after vaccines became widespread. David Irby, 57, of Halifax, Virginia, said he is also cutting back on food and other expenses. Southwest Airlines said last month that it is expecting much higher revenue and profits this year as Americans flood the airports after postponing travel for two years. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices jumped twice as much from March to April as they did the previous month. For now, a fallback in gas prices in April helped slow overall inflation. The increases were fueled by spiking prices for airline tickets, hotel rooms and new cars.

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Inflation hit 8.3 percent in April compared to last year, showing signs ... (NBC News)

The inflation rate was little changed from March to April, a potential sign that the rapid growth in the cost of goods and services may soon taper off.

"But the pressure on policymakers to continue hiking by [one-half percent] per meeting won’t be sustained at its current fever-pitch when inflation is falling," he said. And although mortgage prices have climbed this year, the 30-year mortgage interest rate fell from 5.64 percent last week to 5.4 percent this week. "But with goods shortages tentatively easing and signs that wage growth is set to cool, we still think a more pronounced drop back in inflation will allow officials to slow the pace of tightening in the second half of the year." Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it had raised its key interest rate by 0.5 percent as part of its ongoing effort to cool off the economy, and more rate hikes are expected. Biden called the current inflationary environment a global problem, pointing to the war in Ukraine and pandemic-related supply chain issues for rising costs. "Excluding a decline in energy prices — which appears outdated by this point — the increases remain widespread. "However, when we do see inflation pressures simmer down, mortgage rates will reverse course quickly — particularly if the economy is slowing, too.” Last week, the BLS reported monthly wage growth had decelerated to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent, though on an annual basis it was unchanged at 5.5 percent growth. Still, households are feeling the squeeze of rising prices. At least one economist believes inflation peaked in March. In a note to clients Tuesday, Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics research group, said that while at least one more 0.5 percent rate hike is likely for June, the Fed may pause in July. April’s core inflation measure — the change in the price of goods and services not including food and energy — was 0.6 percent compared to 0.3 percent one month ago in March. The inflation rate was little changed from March to April, a potential sign that the rapid growth in the cost of goods and services may soon taper off.

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US inflation hit 8.3 percent last month but slows from 40-year high (BetaBoston)

On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3 percent from March to April, a still-elevated rate but the smallest increase in eight months.

Their higher pay enables more people to at least partly keep up with higher prices. The unexpected persistence of high inflation has caused the Fed to embark on what may become its fastest series of interest rate increases in 33 years. Economists say such an outcome is possible but unlikely with inflation this high. Core inflation also typically rises more slowly than the overall price increases and can take longer to decline. Used car prices are also expected to have dropped last month. If the European Union decides, for example, to cut off Russian oil, gas prices in the United States would likely accelerate. Previous signs that U.S. inflation might be peaking didn’t last. He said his administration will help ease price increases by shrinking the government’s budget deficit and by fostering competition in industries, like meatpacking, that are dominated by a few industry giants. Advertisement A barrel of U.S. benchmark crude sold for around $100 a barrel Tuesday. Gas had fallen to about $4.10 a gallon in April, after reaching $4.32 in March. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, a still-elevated rate but the smallest increase in eight months. Advertisement

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US inflation might have dipped last month from 40-year high (wflx)

The government is expected to report Wednesday that consumer prices jumped 8.1% last month compared with a year earlier, according to a survey of economists ...

Wednesday’s figures will keep the Fed on track to implement what may become its fastest series of interest rate increases in 33 years, economists said. Food prices rose 1% from March to April and nearly 11% from a year ago. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark short-term rate by a half-point, its steepest increase in two decades. One of the Fed’s biggest concerns is that Americans might start to expect chronically high inflation, which can make rising prices harder to bring under control because such expectations can be self-fulfilling. The escalation of consumer inflation has forced many Americans, particularly people with lower or fixed incomes, to reduce their spending on things like driving and grocery shopping. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the smallest increase in eight months. Price increases decelerated last August and September, suggesting at the time that higher inflation might be temporary, as many economists — and officials at the Federal Reserve — had suggested. Used cars and other goods drove much of the initial inflation spike last year as Americans stepped up spending after vaccines became widespread. Southwest Airlines said last month that it is expecting much higher revenue and profits this year as Americans flood the airports after postponing travel for two years. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices jumped twice as much from March to April as they did the previous month. For now, a fallback in gas prices in April helped slow overall inflation. The increases were fueled by spiking prices for airline tickets, hotel rooms and new cars.

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

Inflation rates edged down in April compared to a month earlier ... (The Washington Post)

The latest figures — known as the consumer price index — may hold signs that such rapid price growth could be starting to plateau, even as inflation remains at ...

“So you could be creating a lot of economic pain and not getting the result.” And policymakers are especially focused on how the housing market responds to the Fed policies. But that message has found less and less traction as inflation becomes the dominant economic issue of the coronavirus era. Rate hikes are a blunt tool and can’t target specific issues in the economy. But even as Fed policymakers race to control inflation and cool the economy, the path is dangerously tricky. On Tuesday, Biden said tackling inflation was his “top domestic priority” and blamed “Mr. Putin’s war in Ukraine” as the key reason for today’s high prices. To save on the cost of staff and space, the organization consolidated operations and now cooks meals out of one kitchen. The energy index dropped 2.7 percent in April, after jumping 11 percent in March. The gasoline index also fell 6.1 percent, after rising 18.3 percent in March. (Still, compared to last year, the energy index is up 30.3 percent and the gasoline index increased 43.6 percent.) “A lot of the patterns I’ve seen, regarding the pandemic, are that it has caused financial stress,” Reynolds said. The government’s main tool to combat inflation rests with the Fed, which can raise interest rates to make an array of loans more expensive. For example, shelter accounts for roughly one-third of the basket of goods and services used to measure the consumer price index. No matter the exact figures, economic officials agree that it will take months of data to assess which way prices are heading.

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Inflation may be easing — but low-income people are still paying the ... (NPR)

The annual inflation rate eased somewhat in April, but not enough to meaningfully reduce the burden on lower-income Americans.

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Image courtesy of "The Guardian"

US inflation rate slows but remains close to 40-year high (The Guardian)

Consumer price index reveals costs rising by a monthly rate of 0.3% in April, down from 1.2% in March, the first fall since August 2021.

The rising cost of living has become a leading political issue as the US prepares for November’s midterm elections. The Biden administration has made attempts to bring down prices. The pace of rate rises, and fears that they may trigger a recession, have spooked investors and sent stock markets reeling. Kroszner said global issues including the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid woes had combined with rising rates to deliver a “one-two punch” to the US economy. A booming house market has made housing unaffordable for many Americans, especially people of color, and 49% of people recently told Pew Research that affordable housing is a large problem in their community. The so-called core-price index – which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy – increased 0.6% on the month, up from March’s 0.3% gain.

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US inflation hit 8.3% last month but slows from 40-year high (knopnews2)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation slowed in April after seven months of relentless gains, a tentative sign that price increases may be peaking while still ...

Wednesday’s figures will keep the Fed on track to implement what may become its fastest series of interest rate increases in 33 years, economists said. Still, some people are starting to push for higher wages as prices rise. Food prices rose 1% from March to April and nearly 11% from a year ago. One of the Fed’s concerns is that Americans might start to expect chronically high inflation, which can make rising prices harder to bring under control because such expectations can be self-fulfilling. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, the smallest rise in eight months. Last week, the central bank raised its benchmark short-term rate by a half-point, its steepest increase in two decades. Used cars and other goods drove much of the initial inflation spike last year as Americans stepped up spending after vaccines became widespread. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, so-called core prices jumped twice as much from March to April as they did the previous month. Southwest Airlines said last month that it foresees much higher revenue and profits this year as Americans flood airports after having postponed travel for two years. Such rapid inflation has led many Americans to cut back on spending. In April, a fallback in gas prices helped slow overall inflation. That year-over-year increase is the biggest since 1980.

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Inflation eases in April, remains near 40-year high (oregonlive.com)

Over the past year, grocery prices have shot up 10.8%, the largest such year-over-year increase since 1980. The cost of a gallon of gas fell 6.1% in April but ...

On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, a still-elevated rate but the smallest increase in eight months. Consumer prices jumped 8.3% last month from 12 months earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday. That was below the 8.5% year-over-year surge in March, which was the highest rate since 1981. Note to readers: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links we may earn a commission.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

New inflation data is out—here's what it says about the state of the ... (CNBC)

At last, consumers are starting to see some relief: The rate of inflation for consumer prices declined in April, according to highly-anticipated Labor ...

If inflation is slowing, aggressive rate hikes beyond 0.25% increments are less likely — but the Fed has already suggested that 0.50% hikes could happen in June and July. Barring unforeseen events, Mahedy says, a recession in 2022 is "very unlikely" despite widespread concerns. And I was left holding my breath for next month's [report], because there's not enough there to make me think [inflation is] going one way or the other," he says. These hikes increase the cost of borrowing, which can slow down economic growth. The CPI numbers suggest that despite recent gas price surges, there are limits to how quickly those prices can grow. "For this report, I was holding my breath.

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Image courtesy of "fortworthbusiness.com"

US inflation hit 8.3% last month but slows from 40-year high (fortworthbusiness.com)

Inflation slowed in April , a sign that price increases may be peaking while still imposing a financial strain on American households.

The unexpected persistence of high inflation has caused the Fed to embark on what may become its fastest series of interest rate increases in 33 years. Last week, the Fed raised its benchmark short-term rate by a half-point, its steepest increase in two decades. If the European Union decides, for example, to cut off Russian oil, gas prices in the United States would likely accelerate. A barrel of U.S. benchmark crude sold for around $100 a barrel Tuesday. Gas had fallen to about $4.10 a gallon in April, after reaching $4.32 in March. He said his administration will help ease price increases by shrinking the government’s budget deficit and by fostering competition in industries, like meatpacking, that are dominated by a few industry giants. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3% from March to April, a still-elevated rate but the smallest increase in eight months.

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Image courtesy of "Bankrate.com"

Worried About Surging Inflation? Here's How To Protect Your Wallet ... (Bankrate.com)

Experts say the inflation picture could get better, as pandemic-related threats recede, supply chain bottlenecks ease and higher interest rates zap demand ...

“One of the best things that consumers can do right now is stop and take stock of what they’re spending,” Ally Invest’s Bell says. Periods of high inflation also underscore the importance of keeping a prudent watch over your finances. They tend to be volatile, and they don’t pay a dividend or yield. “With the same $100, we’re able to buy fewer amounts of goods throughout the economy,” J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Jackson says. Probably not, but there are fundamental factors in place that will allow the real estate market to continue to see price appreciation.” “Stable, dividend-paying consumer staples could have their day in the sun” with higher inflation, McBride says. “A well-diversified portfolio and one that’s appropriate for your goals and time horizon will contain some investments geared to outpace inflation,” McBride says. They pay a fixed interest rate every six months and an inflation adjustment on a semiannual basis, which applies to the bond’s face value, rather than its yield. Investors taking a longer-term view might want to incorporate some specific equities in their portfolio, one of them being a dividend-paying stock. “The key ingredient is to save and invest and consistently build a well-rounded portfolio. “That has the most pronounced impact on consumers living paycheck to paycheck, and low- and moderate-income households.” From an investing perspective, you might not want to adjust your strategy all that much, particularly if you’re someone who’s in it for the long haul.

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Stocks stagger higher after mixed report on April inflation (Bay to Bay News)

FILE - A Wall Street sign is shown in the Financial District, Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2021, in the Manhattan borough of New York. Stocks are off to a higher ...

The Fed risks causing a recession if it raises rates too high or too quickly. The Nasdaq’s loss of roughly 25% so far this year is considerably worse than the nearly 16% drop for the S&P 500, for example. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 3.08% but was back to 2.99% in later trading. Even if it’s deft enough to avoid a downturn, higher rates push down on prices for stocks and all kinds of investments in the meantime. Such moves by design would slow the economy, in hopes of quashing inflation. To corral high inflation, the Fed has already pulled its key short-term interest rate off its record low near zero, where it spent most of the pandemic. The Fed has flipped aggressively toward raising interest rates after seeing high inflation last longer than it expected. It’s not just interest rates that are pushing markets lower. Exxon Mobil rose 3.5%, and ConocoPhillips spurted 3.7% higher. The S&P 500 was 0.5% higher after waffling between gains and losses in early trading. Nevertheless, the numbers were still higher than economists forecast. Higher rates are most hurting the investments that were the biggest winners of the ultra-low rates of the pandemic.

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

U.S. Inflation Is Still Climbing Rapidly (The New York Times)

Inflation data showed a slowdown in annual price increases in April, but a closely watched monthly price measure continues to climb at an uncomfortably ...

Such inflation tends to especially hit the poor, who spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on needs like groceries and gas. As the economy returns to balance, inflation should come down. As such risks have mounted, the Fed has begun to lift interest rates to try to keep price increases from galloping out of control in a more lasting way. After a full year of unusually swift increases, household and investor expectations for future price changes have been creeping higher, which could perpetuate inflation if households and businesses adjust their behavior, asking for bigger raises and charging more for goods and services. That inflation index picked up by 6.6 percent over the year through March, and April figures will be released later this month. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys. Even so, Ms. Rosner-Warburton said she expected annual C.P.I. inflation to remain 5.1 percent at the end of the year, far above levels that prevailed before the pandemic. The pickup in housing costs is particularly important, because they make up about a third of the overall inflation index. The crucial question is how much and how quickly that moderation might happen. “Inflation is a challenge for families across the country, and bringing it down is my top economic priority.” While the letup in annual inflation may have given President Biden and the Fed a dose of comfort, the overall picture remains worrying. At the same time, a closely watched measure that subtracts food and fuel costs actually accelerated.

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The Truth About Inflation (Washington Monthly)

Saudi Arabia and Russia fueled inflation, but Biden's relief plan probably didn't, and there are hopeful signs even with high prices likely to continue into ...

And fortunately, the recent jump in oil prices is likely a one-time event that may dog us for another year or so. From 2017 to 2019, the real inventories of U.S. manufacturers increased an average of 2.8 percent per year, including increases of 4.1 percent for auto and truck makers and 4.0 percent for food product manufacturers. While the economy boomed in 2021, the real inventories of U.S. manufacturers contracted by 4.0 percent, and real inventories of retailers shrank 2.9 percent—creating broader supply issues than Chinese production snares and clogged U.S. ports. The bad news is that energy markets expect Russia and the Saudis to keep oil prices high well into 2023. For example, we know that the pandemic exacerbated economic uncertainty for many people and businesses. Inflation indeed began to take off in March 2021—along with energy prices—but given the long lag between fiscal policy changes and changes in prices, Biden’s American Rescue Plan passed in March 2021 could not have been responsible for that. What about the view, prevalent in some economic circles, that Milton Freidman finally got it right and the current inflation is a case of too much money chasing too few goods? Many economists emphasize the strong demand from the 2021 boom colliding with global supply chain problems in China and at American ports. In this respect, the current inflation recalls the 1970s. After the pandemic lockdowns, demand began to recover in June 2020, with support from the first tranche of pandemic relief in April 2020. That stimulus may have contributed modestly to an uptick in inflation in early 2021, but that was a small cost to prevent a protracted deep recession. While consumer prices rose 8.2 percent from April 2021 to April 2022, prices for energy commodities (mainly oil, natural gas, and coal) jumped 45 percent, fuel oil prices soared 81 percent, and gasoline prices increased 44 percent.

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High inflation leaves food banks struggling to meet needs (wflx)

(AP) – Kendall Nunamaker and her family of five in Kennewick, Washington, faced impossible math this month: How to pay for gas, groceries and the mortgage ...

Associated Press coverage of philanthropy and nonprofits receives support through the AP’s collaboration with The Conversation US, with funding from Lilly Endowment Inc. The AP is solely responsible for this content. She said the food banks helped her family last week. “All of that combined is truly having an impact on our budget because we’re needing to purchase more food outright.” Williams, of Spokane, extended gratitude to the donors and volunteers that keep his organization running, some of whom worked more than 100 shifts last year. “You see the need and you just go, ‘Oh God, oh my God,’ " Williams said. The problem has grown to the point where last week President Joe Biden called for a Conference on Hunger, Nutrition and Health in September, the first since 1969.

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Stocks stagger higher after mixed report on April inflation (Bay to Bay News)

FILE - A Wall Street sign is shown in the Financial District, Wednesday, Oct. 13, 2021, in the Manhattan borough of New York. Stocks are off to a higher ...

The Fed risks causing a recession if it raises rates too high or too quickly. The Nasdaq’s loss of roughly 25% so far this year is considerably worse than the nearly 16% drop for the S&P 500, for example. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed as high as 3.08% but was back to 2.99% in later trading. Even if it’s deft enough to avoid a downturn, higher rates push down on prices for stocks and all kinds of investments in the meantime. Such moves by design would slow the economy, in hopes of quashing inflation. To corral high inflation, the Fed has already pulled its key short-term interest rate off its record low near zero, where it spent most of the pandemic. The Fed has flipped aggressively toward raising interest rates after seeing high inflation last longer than it expected. It’s not just interest rates that are pushing markets lower. Exxon Mobil rose 3.5%, and ConocoPhillips spurted 3.7% higher. The S&P 500 was 0.5% higher after waffling between gains and losses in early trading. Nevertheless, the numbers were still higher than economists forecast. Higher rates are most hurting the investments that were the biggest winners of the ultra-low rates of the pandemic.

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Why Inflation Doesn't Affect Us All the Same (The New York Times)

Ben Casselman contributed reporting. The Daily is made by Lisa Tobin, Rachel Quester, Lynsea Garrison, Clare Toeniskoetter, Paige Cowett, Michael Simon Johnson, ...

Transcripts of each episode are available by the next workday. You can find them at the top of the page. There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.

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Gold prices dip as dollar rally dims appeal (Reuters)

Gold prices inched lower on Thursday as the dollar scaled a fresh two-decade peak after April U.S. inflation data bolstered expectations that the Federal ...

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com It is, however, seen as a safe store of value during economic and political crises. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

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Treasury yields fall as investors digest hot inflation data (CNBC)

U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday morning, as investors digested hotter-than-expected inflation data, released in the previous session.

The move further pushed up bond prices while lowering yields. The number of jobless claims filed during the week ended May 7 is also slated for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Bob Parker, investment committee member at Quilvest Wealth Management, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday that the "risk of the global economy going into recession obviously is still an outside risk." The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped 7 basis points to 2.8407% at 4:25 a.m. ET. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond moved 4 basis points lower to 2.9942%. Yields move inversely to prices and 1 basis point is equal to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 3% following the release of the report, but then eased back. As the sell-off in equities continued, investors moved back into bonds in search of safety.

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Biden's American Rescue Plan worsened inflation (Vox)

President Biden speaking into a microphone from in front of a backdrop that reads “Lowering US President Joe Biden speaks during a visit to a family farm in ...

They thought they were still in the “ money printer go brrr” era, where there was less pressure to be judicious about where that money was going — so instead of targeting help to those who needed it, they sent hundreds of billions of dollars to well-off Americans and states doing just fine, for political reasons. Now, Democrats had many good intentions in drafting the American Rescue Plan — they wanted to help people and avert economic pain. Much of the ARP’s spending did quite a lot to help people in need, with child poverty and child hunger falling. It’s true that the American Rescue Plan wasn’t the primary cause of today’s inflation. The ARP was so big that the kind of marginal dollar went to inflation, not to increased economic output.” A major fear is that inflation will become (or is already becoming) a self-fulfilling prophecy, as consumers and producers come to expect it and act accordingly. And the stimulus that most stands out is Biden’s $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan — because it was enacted after more than $3 trillion had already been spent to stimulate the economy under Trump, with one big chunk of that being approved just three months prior. That indeed seems to be partly because of the Biden stimulus spending. Some economists with lower-end estimates still argue that it’s a mistake to put too much blame on the American Rescue Plan, which in their view was just a minor contributor to inflation. “I think we can say with certainty that we would have less inflation and fewer problems that we need to solve right now if the American Rescue Plan had been optimally sized,” said Wendy Edelberg, a senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. From 2021 onward, what’s known as “core inflation” has been significantly higher in the US than in other wealthy countries. They’re trying to do so gingerly, aiming for a “ soft landing.” But if demand and investment end up plummeting in response, the US could face a painful recession.

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How to calculate your personal inflation rate and why it matters (NBC News)

Inflation eased slightly in April to an annual rate of 8.3 percent, down from an annual rate of 8.5 percent in March, according to data released Wednesday ...

To calculate your personal inflation rate for April, for instance, total your monthly expenses for April 2021. Calculating your personal inflation rate will give you a much better idea of how hard you’re actually being hit by rising prices — and where. You may be a vegetarian and not affected by higher meat costs.

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Has inflation finally peaked? (KMID - Local 2 News)

Inflation may have finally peaked after more than a year of supply chain snarls, labor shortages and a flood of stimulus driving prices higher.

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Another key inflation measure slowed in April - CNN (CNN)

Economists and investors are hopeful that we're past the pandemic inflation peak, as another key price index showed a slower increase in April.

The April number was higher than economists had predicted. Stripping out more volatile prices for food, energy and trade services, the PPI rose 6.9% in the year ended in April. For the month alone, the so-called core prices rose 0.6%, less than in the prior month. reported Thursday. It was the fifth straight month of double-digit inflation.

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Gasoline, diesel prices rise to another record amid rampant inflation (CNBC)

A gas station is seen as the average price of gasoline reach all-time high at $4.37 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) in Virginia, USA on May 10, 2022. It's claimed ...

The national average for a regular gallon of gasoline hit $4.418 on Thursday, according to AAA. The price is not adjusted for inflation. Retail diesel prices also hit another record Thursday. The national average for a gallon is now $5.557, which is up 53 cents in the last month. - The national average for a gallon of gasoline hit $4.418 on Thursday, according to AAA.

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Wholesale inflation rose 11% in April as producer prices keep ... (CNBC)

A worker loads an aluminum coil onto a truck at the Arconic manufacturing facility in Alcoa, Tennessee, on Wednesday, March 9, 2022. Luke Sharrett | Bloomberg | ...

Gas and groceries have been responsible for much of the inflation surge, with indexes tracking the two sectors up a respective 1.7% and 1.5% in April, according to the PPI data. The Fed last week approved a half percentage point increase in its benchmark interest rate, the second increase this year with more expected to come. President Joe Biden this week has spoken multiple times about the raging price increases during his administration and set forth several proposals to tackle the problem. However, that trend has since reversed, with gas prices back around record highs. That was above the Dow Jones estimate for 194,000. Excluding food, energy and trade services, core PPI rose 0.6% in April and 6.9% from a year ago, the latter a decline from 7.1% last month.

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Wholesale inflation climbs 11% in April, remaining near 40-year high (Fox Business)

Wholesale prices on an annual basis cooled for the first time in months in April, even as inflation continued to hover near a 40-year high as a result of ...

The Labor Department said Thursday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, climbed 11% in April from the previous year. Policymakers raised the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points last week for the first time in two decades and have signaled that more, similarly sized rate hikes are on the table at coming meetings as they rush to catch up with inflation. Prices for construction also soared by 4% in April, while prices for services held steady last month. Consumers are paying more for everyday necessities, including groceries, gasoline and cars. The surge in wholesale prices comes on the heels of a separate Labor Department report released on Wednesday that showed the consumer price index climbed 8.3% in April from the previous year, far more than economists expected. Economists expected the producer price index to show prices climbed by 10.7% in April

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Inflation gave most Americans a 2.6% wage cut in April (Fox Business)

The tightest labor market in decades is fueling rapid wage growth for millions of Americans, but sky-high inflation is quickly eroding those gains.

As a result, workers are seeing the largest pay gains in years, as companies compete with one another for a limited number of employees. But Americans are paying more for everyday necessities, with price increases broad-based in April. Food prices jumped 1% over the month, marking the 17th consecutive monthly increase for that index. That's because consumers are confronting the highest inflation in a generation, which has quickly diminished their purchasing power. Airfare costs are up 33.3% over the past year, according to unadjusted data. Businesses are eager to onboard new employees and are raising wages in order to attract workers as they confront a labor shortage. On a monthly basis, average hourly earnings dropped 0.1% in March, when accounting for the inflation spike.

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US stocks fall as inflation remains stubbornly high (Albuquerque Journal)

NEW YORK — Stocks fell in afternoon trading on Wall Street as investors received another dire readout on inflation. The S&P 500 fell 1.5% as of 2:31 p.m. ...

“That’s something that investors will focus more and more on as we go into the second half of the year, how durable are company earnings.” The impact of higher prices for consumers has been global. Coach and Kate Spade owner Tapestry jumped 15.4% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 after reporting strong financial results. Most of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 were in the red. Many of the costs at the wholesale level are being passed on to consumers as companies try to cover higher expenses. Investors are concerned that the central bank could cause a recession if it raises rates too high or too quickly. On Wednesday, the Labor Department’s report on consumer prices came in hotter than Wall Street expected. That has raised more concerns about a potential pullback in spending that could crimp economic growth. On Thursday, Britain said its economy grew at the slowest pace in a year during the first quarter. Rising inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to pull its benchmark short-term interest rate off its record low near zero, where it spent most of the pandemic. Technology stocks were once again among the biggest weights on the broader market. Updated 4 times

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By a wide margin, Americans view inflation as the top problem ... (Pew Research Center)

Seven-in-ten Americans view inflation as a very big problem for the country, followed by the affordability of health care and violent crime.

Neither Republicans nor Democrats widely view the quality of public schools as a major problem. A much narrower majority of Democrats and Democratic leaners (57%) view inflation as a very big problem. Democrats are nearly four times as likely as Republicans to rate climate change as a very big problem (63% vs. In the new survey, just 23% of Americans rate unemployment as a very big problem, down from 41% a year ago and 50% in June 2020. 16%). Republicans, by contrast, are far more likely than Democrats to view illegal immigration as a very big problem (65% vs. More than two years into the coronavirus pandemic, just 19% of Americans rate the coronavirus outbreak as a very big problem for the country, the lowest share out of 12 issues included in the survey.

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Biden warns Dems inflation will 'scare the living hell out of everybody' (New York Post)

President Joe Biden warned Democratic donors at a Chicago fundraiser that decades-high inflation could cost the party in November's midterm elections.

They’re going to go after — they’re going to — we’re going to be back to Griswold vs. “If you read the opinion — if it turns out to be the same opinion — [it] basically says there is no such thing as a right to privacy. It’s going to be hard, because inflation is going to scare the living hell out of everybody.”

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Airfare inflation is the new used car inflation (Axios)

The latest inflation data included a number that was shocking, though not exactly surprising to anyone who has been booking their summer travel lately: ...

Why it matters: The new record, which isn't adjusted for inflation, comes as rising prices put pressure on the Biden administration to help consumers. Yes, but: The problem with the current inflationary moment is not that some prices are rising for idiosyncratic reasons. State of play: The causes of surging airfare are straightforward. - And over time, you would expect these weird shocks to be symmetrical, with deflationary surprises that offset inflationary surprises. Why it matters: A challenge with interpreting inflation data is determining what to "look through" as a mere one-time adjustment and when to show more alarm. In other words, the problem is not just that airfare prices rose by 19%. The issue is that airfare prices rose a lot on top of lots of other things rising by an uncomfortably high 0.4% or 0.5% — and no prices falling by double-digits.

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Fed Chair Jerome Powell is confirmed for a 2nd term. Inflation will ... (NPR)

Jerome Powell was confirmed to a second term as Federal Reserve chairman. The Senate vote comes as the central bank faces intense pressure to bring down ...

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US Stocks Fall as Inflation Remains Stubbornly High (U.S. News & World Report)

Shares fell in Asia on Thursday after the release of worse inflation data than expected sparked heavy selling of technology stocks on Wall Street.

“That’s something that investors will focus more and more on as we go into the second half of the year, how durable are company earnings.” The impact of higher prices for consumers has been global. Bitcoin got caught up in the selling. Coach and Kate Spade owner Tapestry jumped 15.5% for the biggest gain in the S&P 500 after reporting strong financial results. Many of the costs at the wholesale level are being passed on to consumers as companies try to cover higher expenses. On Wednesday, the Labor Department's report on consumer prices came in hotter than Wall Street expected. Investors are concerned that the central bank could cause a recession if it raises rates too high or too quickly. Another dire readout on inflation sparked a wave of selling early Thursday, with technology stocks weighing down the S&P 500 index the most. The benchmark S&P 500 is now down 17.5% this year, while the Nasdaq is down 27.3%. The Russell 2000 rose 21.24 points, or 1.2%, to 1,739.38. That has raised more concerns about a potential pullback in spending that could crimp economic growth. The S&P 500 closed only 0.1% lower after having been down 1.9% earlier in the day.

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Has inflation finally peaked? (WesternSlopeNow)

(The Hill) – Inflation may have finally peaked after more than a year of supply chain snarls, labor shortages, and a flood of stimulus driving prices ...

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Inflation trends will persist unless the Fed acts quickly (UTSA Today)

MAY 12, 2022 — Editor's note: This op-ed by Tom Tunstall, economist and senior research director at The University of Texas at San Antonio Institute for ...

The University of Texas at San Antonio is dedicated to the advancement of knowledge through research and discovery, teaching and learning, community engagement and public service. UTSA, a premier public research university, fosters academic excellence through a community of dialogue, discovery and innovation that embraces the uniqueness of each voice. As an institution expressly founded to advance the education of Mexican Americans and other underserved communities, our university is committed to ending generations of discrimination and inequity. Given recent global developments across supply chains—whether the result of COVID variants, or the Russian-Ukrainian war—it’s hard to paint a very rosy picture for the rest of 2022. The first—and for a while, certainly the most dominant—is that inflation is largely COVID-induced, and that as we get a handle on the virus, supply chains will heal and rising prices will subside. Although longer-term consumer inflation expectations remain muted, that situation could easily change, particularly if the Federal Reserve refuses to take a tougher stance to combat the threat. For the present, consumers should plan to hunker down and prepare for additional upward price shocks in the coming months by doing things like substituting more expensive items for less costly ones. While the U.S. is a significant exporter of wheat, global shortages will mean higher prices for consumers everywhere. In addition, the Biden administration announced that it will allow the use of higher ethanol blends over the summer by providing waivers to refiners. Some relief from high gasoline prices has come in the form of a million barrels a day of crude oil released from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR). This will help. For different reasons, Russia’s wheat exports will decrease significantly also—in its case due to international sanctions and the perils associated with Black Sea shipping. The second narrative—which becomes more apparent by the day—is that inflation pressure will persist into the rest of this year and beyond.

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What a serious Republican plan to address inflation could look like (The Washington Post)

The GOP should think outside the box and embrace populist conservatism.

A party that’s willing to think outside the box can avoid this trap and make a dent in inflation. The ongoing political realignment means that Democrats, not Republicans, are increasingly the party of the ultra-rich. Inflation’s real cause is the massive expansion of the money supply that the United States used to fight the pandemic’s economic impact. Households and nonprofit organizations held about $1.3 trillion in bank accounts and cash in the first quarter of 2020; by the end of last year, they held more than $4 trillion. The federal government ran nearly $6 trillion in deficits in the past two fiscal years, about triple what it was expected to run. Democrats seem to believe that it is largely the result of the pandemic‘s effects on labor markets and supply chains.

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Inflation Stays in the Heights (The Wall Street Journal)

The “transitory” inflation crowd took another beating on Wednesday, as April's expected decline in the rate of increase in the consumer-price index (CPI) ...

You may cancel your subscription at anytime by calling Customer Service. The CPI rose 8.3% over the last 12 months, which was down slightly from 8.5% in March. But the inflation rate over the last three months is 9.9%. If inflation is slowing, it’s hard to detect. That is already out of date as gas prices have since rebounded to hit a new record this week.

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Senate confirms Powell for 2nd term as Fed fights inflation (ABC News)

The Senate on Thursday confirmed Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as Federal Reserve chair, giving bipartisan backing to Powell's high-stakes ...

In the past, politicians have often objected to higher interest rates out of fear that they would cause job losses. And the prospect of steadily higher interest rates has unsettled the financial markets, with stock prices having tumbled for weeks. Cook and Jefferson are both Black, meaning that the Fed’s board now has two Black members for the first time in its 108-year history. They suggest, though, that most economists outside the Fed also initially thought high inflation would prove short-lived. He faces a difficult and risky task in trying to quell inflation without weakening the economy so much as to cause a recession. The 80-19 vote reflected broad support in Congress for the Fed's drive to combat surging prices through a series of sharp interest rate hikes that could extend well into next year.

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Powell says he can't guarantee a 'soft landing' as the Fed looks to ... (CNBC)

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned Thursday that getting inflation under control could cause some economic pain but remains his top priority.

Nothing in the economy works, the economy doesn't work for anybody without price stability." "Our goal, of course, is to get inflation back down to 2% without having the economy go into recession, or, to put it this way, with the labor market remaining fairly strong," he said. I think the one thing we really cannot do is to fail to restore price stability, though. "So it will be challenging, it won't be easy. No one here thinks that it will be easy," he said. - "Nonetheless, we think there are pathways ... for us to get there," he said in an interview with Marketplace published Thursday.

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Governor Newsom Proposes $18.1 Billion Inflation Relief Package ... (Office of Governor Gavin Newsom)

Package includes direct payments to help address costs of rising inflation and past-due water and utility bills, free public transit, money for health care ...

Largest small businesses relief program in the nation. Largest statewide renter and utility assistance program in the country. For years, the state minimum wage has increased steadily while inflation numbers remained modest. Additionally, California’s minimum wage is projected to increase to $15.50 per hour for all workers on January 1, 2023. These conditions have further been exacerbated by Russia’s war in Ukraine. Package includes direct payments to help address costs of rising inflation and past-due water and utility bills, free public transit, money for health care workers, middle-class health care subsidies, and waiving child care fees for families

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Inflation Is Still High. Why That Hits Low-Income Americans Hardest. (NPR)

Inflation dipped slightly in April, but it's still at a historically-high 8.3 percent. Research suggests lower-income families suffer the most when prices ...

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The Inflation Tax - AAF (American Action Forum)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) yesterday released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for April and CPI inflation came in at 8.3 percent over the past ...

But the real bone-crushing inflation tax is the nearly 20 percent rate on FES. As shown below, the price of FES has risen by 10 percent over the past 12 months, considerably faster than the CPI as a whole. Since January 2021, the CPI has risen at an average annual rate of nearly 15 percent – essentially twice the headline figure in the newspapers today. This is a rosy view of the situation. Purchases of food (13.4 percent), energy (8.3 percent), and shelter (32.5 percent) (FES) constitute over half of the CPI; i.e., 50 percent of the average family budget. This was viewed as a combination of good news, it was lower than March’s 8.5 percent, and bad news, it was above the expected rate of 8.1 percent.

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