CPI

2022 - 5 - 11

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Live Updates: April CPI Report and Inflation News (The New York Times)

Inflation data shows a modest deceleration, but prices are still climbing at a brisk pace, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain strong.

This study suggests, however, that high-frequency spending categories like food tend to motivate consumer psychology more than changes in the cost of rent, for example, which most people encounter only once a year. Policymakers have been struggling to avoid a “wage-price spiral,” in which price and wage increases become self-reinforcing and escalate out of control. “What stands out in April 2022 is the above-average increases in food prices,” the office said in a statement. Consumer prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in April, the Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday, citing preliminary figures that are adjusted to make them comparable with inflation data from other E.U. countries. Agricultural prices started to skyrocket in the second half of last year, meaning year-over-year price increases will start to look less steep since they are measured from a higher starting point. The interest rate resets every six months and is linked to the rate of inflation. But in the process, the Fed has disrupted financial markets and contributed to big price reductions for stocks and bonds. White House officials in recent weeks have repeatedly referred to “ Putin’s price hike,” a reference to the role that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played in driving up oil and gas prices. On Tuesday, Mr. Biden said in a speech at the White House that inflation was his “top domestic priority” and that his administration was taking whatever steps it could to try to reduce costs. But 67 percent of respondents in the survey — including 42 percent of Republicans — said they approved of the law, the same level of support as when it passed last year. The pickup in housing costs is an especially big deal, because they make up about a third of the overall inflation index. The reality that annual inflation has possibly peaked will give the White House and Fed a positive talking point and a dose of comfort.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining ... (CNBC)

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index was expected to rise 8% year-over-year in April, according to Dow Jones estimates.

Airline fares continued their climb as more people take to the skies amid increased business travel and vacations. Auto sales also have been a big contributor to inflation as supply chain issues, especially with the semiconductors vital to vehicle operating systems, have pushed prices up. Stock market futures reacted negatively to the report, turning negative after being positive earlier in the morning. Real wages adjusted for inflation decreased 0.1% on the month despite a nominal increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings. On a 12-month basis, energy costs were still up 30.3% while food rose 9.4%, according to unadjusted data. However, Wednesday's data shows that the Fed has a big job ahead. That represented a slight ease from March's peak but was still close to the highest level since the summer of 1982. Rising prices at the pump and in grocery stores have been one problem, but inflation has spread beyond those two areas into housing, auto sales and a host of other areas. Over the past year, real earnings have dropped 2.6% even though average hourly earnings are up 5.5%. The CPI gains came even though energy prices declined 2.7% for the month, including a 6.1% drop for gasoline. Used vehicle prices fell 0.4% on the month but new vehicle prices rose 1.1%. Prices rose 22.7% and 13.2% for the two categories respectively over the past year. The month-over-month gains also were higher than expectations — 0.3% on headline CPI vs.

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Image courtesy of "Yahoo Finance"

Inflation decelerates slightly from 40-year high as CPI rises 8.3% in ... (Yahoo Finance)

CONSUMER PRICES RISE BY THE MOST SINCE 1981. U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE SINCE 1970.

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Image courtesy of "MarketWatch"

U.S. inflation rate slows to 8.3%, CPI shows, but price pressures still ... (MarketWatch)

The yearly rate of U.S. inflation fell to 8.3% in April to mark the first decline in eight months, but the upward pressure on prices is unlikely to ease...

The cost of clothing fell for the first time in seven months and used-vehicle prices also declined. Looking ahead: “The slowdown in CPI was largely due to March’s decline in gasoline prices after April’s surge. The rate of inflation over the past year slowed to 8.3% from 8.5% — the first time it’s declined since last summer. Shelter costs account for a third or more of a typical household budget. And lockdowns in China could further disrupt the shipment of critical supplies that American companies need to produce their goods and services. Consumers got a temporary break from higher gas prices in April. They fell 6.1% last month. Oil prices surged after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and then leveled off in April. Food prices jumped almost 1% last month. Prices are climbing again. The cost of rent and housing both rose sharply again in April and helped explain the big increase in the core rate of inflation. It’s already raised rates twice this year. The increase in the core rate over the past year slowed to 6.2% from from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

Soaring inflation slowed in April. Will it bring a bit of relief to price ... (USA TODAY)

The consumer price index increased 8.3% annually, down from 8.5% in March, as a drop in gasoline prices offset a continuing run-up in food, rent and other costs ...

Breakfast cereal prices rose 2.4% in April and are up 12.1% from a year ago, and bread costs increased 2% and 9.1% yearly. Consumers’ pivot to more spending on services, along with worker shortages that propelled wages higher, drive up a different set of prices. Rent climbed 0.6% monthly and 4.8% from a year ago. Grocery costs jumped 1% monthly and 10.8% from a year ago. Much of the slowdown in the yearly measure reflected a 6.1% monthly drop in gas prices. Fish was up 0.9% and 13% annually. But the monthly rise in core prices "indicates that underlying inflation pressures are stronger than we had expected." Pork chop prices rose 1.9% monthly and 14% annually. That has begun moderating increases in the price of furniture, appliances and other items. Clothing prices fell 0.8% monthly, lowering the annual rise to 5.4%. But the 3,300-mile trip will cost an extra $550 or so in gas, so they decided to skip it this year. Regular unleaded hit a record $4.37 a gallon Tuesday, up from $4.12 a month ago, according to AAA.

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Image courtesy of "Fortune"

Investors are betting that today's inflation report will show the worst ... (Fortune)

As such, all eyes on Wall Street will be tuning into today's pivotal consumer price index (CPI) report to see if there's any relief in sight. The numbers, ...

Any whiff of a 75-basis-point hike would likely send bearish investors rushing for the exits, the markets pros fear, after a week to forget. “Today’s report will help shape the early read into this, and has an ability to move markets in a large manner if diverging from consensus too far.” According to a Reuters survey of economists, the consensus estimate will show consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, which would mean inflation is running at a red-hot rate of 8.1% higher than a year ago. However, she added, “I think the pace we’re going right now seems about right to me.” Last month, the CPI print showed inflation for consumer products hit a 41-year-high, growing at an annual rate of 8.5%. Which brings us back to today’s CPI data.

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Image courtesy of "Reuters"

April US CPI cools, signals mixed on peaking inflation (Reuters)

U.S. consumer price growth slowed sharply in April as gasoline prices eased off record highs, suggesting that inflation has probably peaked, ...

Higher interest rates are starting cooling down the construction sector, but shelter inflation (which account for over a third of total core inflation) will stay strong for a long time. “The Fed will continue with (50 basis point) rate hikes for the next three meetings, and a quarter of a point for the next few meetings. “NASDAQ (futures) are down the most because rates are going up in anticipation that the Fed will have to stay pretty aggressive for some time. The data is an upside surprise, but it's still a drop from March. So in a sense, they're probably on the right path and they will continue with their previously laid out plan." "A bit of an upside surprise on all counts, so the peak inflation story will definitely have to be reconsidered in light of this data." Investors are going to be concerned that the Fed is going to take an even more aggressive approach, which is going to fuel continued concerns around a potential recession. So we do think this is going to be a big, big negative for the markets today. “The good news is that the numbers came down off of last month. The bad news is that they're a little higher than expected. But the Fed will stay the course, because the estimates aren’t that far off. "What you're seeing there is continued fears the Fed is going to have to act aggressively to combat inflation. The core was the problem, coming in hotter than expected and about double the last month.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

April CPI report: US inflation slowed last month for the first time since ... (CNN)

The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had ...

"Inflation remains widespread, making it all the more difficult to curtail," wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese in a note to clients. Food prices rose 0.9% last month and 9.4% year over year, the biggest jump since April 1981. That means it's uncertain how much the pace of inflation can slow down until these things are resolved. But there are still a lot of factors that will keep prices elevated over the summer. Businesses have been building up their inventories, which helps core inflation on the goods side, while prices in the services sector are soaring as Americans return to traveling and other leisure activities. Year-over-year, housing costs are up 5.1%.

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Image courtesy of "advisorperspectives.com"

Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 8.26%, Down from March (advisorperspectives.com)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at ...

The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months. The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase.

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Image courtesy of "ABC Action News"

In-Depth: What is the CPI and Why Does It Matter? (ABC Action News)

Wednesday's news of the Consumer Price Index rising again in April quantified what everyone has seen for months, almost everything we buy is going up in ...

April marked the 17th consecutive monthly increase in the food index and the food at home index's 10.8 price jump is the largest year-over-year increase since November 1980. If you've been to Publix, Winn-Dixie, or your grocery store of choice, the following won't come as a surprise, but prices for food overall have risen 9.4% year-over-year as of April. But the breakdown of food prices also showed a divide between the price of food for home vs. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has the responsibility of controlling inflation, recently increased interest rates by 0.5 basis points and is likely to do so again at the next meeting. In April, overall prices in the energy sector did drop in some areas. What is the CPI? According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, also referred to as inflation. For food at home, the BLS reported prices have risen 10.8% in the last year with each of the last four months showing a growth of at least 1%. At the same time, prices for food away from home have risen 7.2% in the last year, with no month dating back to October 2021 showing an increase of at least 1%. Core CPI approached levels last seen in January last month which can be seen in the following chart. Overall, gas prices have risen 43.6% in the last year with other motor fuels jumping 64.2% year-over-year in April. However, combined with the previous two months, gas prices are still significantly above where they were in January. Any slight gains for customers with prices may be wiped out in April as gasoline prices have started rising as the busy Memorial Day holiday travel season nears. Overall, the CPI for April increased 0.3%t on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2% in March. Over the last year, inflation for all items stood at 8.3%, non-seasonally adjusted. The CPI is available for major groups of consumer expenditures including: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. The year-over-year number (8.3%) is what is most focused on by investors, politicians, and journalists.

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Image courtesy of "Cato Institute"

The CPI Rose at a 4.1% rate in April - Not 8.2% (Cato Institute)

The Consumer Price Index was up only 0.33% in April, or a compound annual rate of 4.1% – the slowest since last August. Yet CNBC, like others, reported that ...

For the future, we need to emphasize current data – viewing each new month one at a time while understanding that the Russia‐Ukraine war is indeed boosting world commodity prices, particularly energy and food. When defining inflation over 12‐month spans, logic and evidence suggest it is fair and accurate (not just partisan) to blame a few percentage points of the high year‐to‐year inflation numbers on the overblown March 2021 pandemic payouts. As for this year’s supply shocks to global food and energy prices, that could best be fixed by world peace. The third payment provided eligible individual taxpayers for a check of up to $1,400″ per family member ($4,200 for a family of four). But the payouts stopped last year, so they explain little of what happened so far this year. Yet the reason inflation surged more in the U.S. than in most other countries last Spring, was a uniquely American fiscal splurge. Were it not for that statistical oddity, excluding the substantial increase in food prices would have resulted in a lower core CPI. And it is not possible even now to quickly grow wheat, feed grains, soybeans, cattle, dairy cows, hogs, or chicken. Although that number is routinely reported as “the” inflation rate for April 2022 it is a backward‐looking average of increases over the past twelve months, with the largest increases happening about a year ago. Yet much or most of that high inflation peaked about a year ago. It shows monthly changes in the “headline” CPI compared to the month before rather than the year before. Shelter, food, airline fare and new vehicles were the largest price increases, while prices of apparel, communication and used cars all fell.

Our Counsel After April's CPI Slowdown | MarketMinder | Fisher ... (Fisher Investments)

April's consumer price index (CPI) inflation data hit the wires Wednesday, and for the second month in a row, pundits seemed united in a quest to find signs ...

CPI and PCE have different category weights, and PCE also factors in the effect of substitution as consumers respond to price changes of individual goods and services. Yes, stocks have seemingly reacted to inflation at times this year, but we think they are reacting to the fear, not prices themselves at a fundamental level. In our view, this is a big reason why stocks have often risen through periods of above-average inflation, not hitting trouble until the Fed overshoots when trying to rein in prices. As for the Fed, pundits also spilled countless pixels trying to divine what today’s report means for the path of rate hikes—always a fruitless endeavor, in our view, but especially today. “Core” inflation, which omits food and energy, may have decelerated from 6.5% y/y in March to 6.2% y/y in April, but this seems due primarily to the base effect. At the same time, we don’t think near-term monetary policy moves are likely to be consequential. A more meaningful drop in the core inflation rate would be if the base effect and slower month-over-month price increases collided. Pundits’ focus on the three-month slide in used car prices—which were a big inflation driver last year—and the steep drop in energy prices could also add to this. In April 2022, they accelerated from March’s 0.3% m/m to 0.6%. The base just rose more, creating a slower year-over-year rate. But we also think it is impossible to know when and how high the inflation rate will peak. But this effort to pinpoint the start seems counterproductive to us. Editors’ Note: Inflation is an increasingly politicized topic on both sides of the American political aisle.

Dollar Strengthens After CPI; Sterling Hit by GDP Release (Yahoo Finance)

The U.S. dollar strengthened in early European trade Thursday to a new two-decade high after U.S. inflation remained stubbornly high, while sterling ...

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April's CPI Codifies the New Age of Inflation (Brownstone Institute)

So what today's report really showed is that inflation has already reached a dangerous interim plateau. And that's before we get to double-digit rates of annual ...

That is, by the age old cure of recession and a doozy at that. By contrast, the Y/Y gains reported this AM for April 2022 are in a different ball park. In all, the April CPI report reminded once again that we are in a wholly new inflationary ball game. As of April 2022, the year-over-year gain is back up to 3.5%, and has every probability of going higher, not lower. After rising at a 3.1% per annum rate between 2012 and February 2020, the onset of the Covid era literally caused the index to perform somersaults. Again, the story is not so much the April 2022 gains as it is the elimination of the one-time Covid-Lockdown effects which temporarily freighted down the overall CPI. An illuminating example of this temporary dip and then robust recovery in the services sector is provided by the transportation services sub-index. Compared to trend increases centered around 2.5% during the recovery years between 2012-2019, the CPI services components slipped to as low as 1.3% on Y/Y basis in January 2021. But reaching further upstream to the PPI and commodity indices for foods reveals that the CPI food indices have by no means peaked. On a year-over-years basis, these are some of the pressures evident in the April CPI report: April was the seventh straight month in which the Y/Y CPI rose by more than 6%, and on that high plateau household budgets and savings can get pulverized. And these two items alone account for 31.4% of the headline CPI.

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