Putin nuclear

2022 - 2 - 27

Nuclear -- nuclear war -- russia nuclear Nuclear - nuclear war - russia nuclear

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Image courtesy of "Military.com"

Putin Nuclear Order Stirs Fears, Uncertainty in US (Military.com)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to heighten the alert status of his nuclear forces has raised fears in the U.S. that the war in Ukraine could lead ...

"It's not a term of art in what we understand to be Russian doctrine," the official said. ... They don't have to take the bait." "There are some scenarios in which you can imagine, not just this invasion of Ukraine, but some scenarios in which he might seriously consider so-called limited use in a conflict that threatens the existence of the Russian state," Kimball said, "which he, of course, probably interprets as him." "We do not want to commit the same egregious fouls that Vladimir Putin is committing here, including threatening the first use of nuclear weapons in the conflict," Kimball said. Experts also warn that Russian nuclear doctrine is vague enough that Putin could respond to a nonnuclear threat to his rule -- such as sanctions cratering the Russian economy -- with a nuclear answer. "I order the minister of defense and the chief of the general staff to transfer the deterrence forces of the Russian army to a special mode of combat duty," Putin said in a meeting with Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. "Reports that Putin has placed Russia's nuclear forces on higher alert is a stark reminder of why we need a strong, effective deterrent to meet the growing threats facing the U.S. and our allies," Senate Armed Services Committee ranking member Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., tweeted Sunday. "The upcoming Nuclear Posture Review cannot ignore this reality." The Biden administration has been working on a Nuclear Posture Review, a formal document outlining American nuclear policy drafted by each new administration, that has been expected to impose at least some limits on the U.S. nuclear arsenal, including possibly canceling Trump administration plans for a sea-launched cruise missile or changing U.S. policy to declare the "sole purpose" of nuclear weapons is deterrence. "The core of the announcement is saber-rattling to scare the West and get some concessions," Kristensen told Military.com in a phone interview. In a televised statement Sunday, Putin ordered his military leadership to put nuclear deterrent forces on a "special regime of combat duty" in response to "aggressive statements" from the West and escalating sanctions that are increasingly choking off Russia's economy. Russian President Vladimir Putin's order to heighten the alert status of his nuclear forces has raised fears in the U.S. that the war in Ukraine could lead to a devastating miscalculation, as well as spurred debate over the United States' own nuclear policies. "It's my judgment that Putin's publicly announced statement that he was raising the alert levels yesterday was designed more to reinforce his earlier threats against those who might seek to intervene in his invasion against Ukraine from doing so, rather than to actually raise the alert levels to the point where they might actually be used," Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, told Military.com in a phone interview.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

What to know about Russia's nuclear weapons and threats ... (CNN)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's rhetoric has intensified to include direct reference to his nation's vast nuclear stockpile, placing the country on its ...

A nuclear weapon detonated during a war now would cause a reevaluation by the powers that have a stockpile. And it is making very clear the US has not changed its own nuclear threat level. The review lays out an administration's approach to nuclear weapons policy. The Biden administration is expected to complete its own broad Nuclear Posture Review, traditionally done by new presidents, early this year. The nuclear alert seems like more an act of frustration than a calculated tactical move," he said in an email. "The track record for nuclear blackmail is not great," said Fuhrmann in an email. They documented 19 instances of nuclear threats and coercive language in the post-World War II era. If anything, it has served to further inflame world opinion against Russia," Sechser added. They would need to be loaded onto fighter jets for use. The US also does not have a "no-first-use" policy and allows for the "sole authority" of the President to use nuclear weapons, and most presidents have said the "sole purpose" would be nuclear deterrence. "To threaten nukes cost him nothing. The threat isn't unprecedented.

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Image courtesy of "The Moscow Times"

Isolated Russia Defends Ukraine War at UN General Assembly ... (The Moscow Times)

Asked if Americans should be worried about nuclear war after President Vladimir Putin said he was putting his strategic forces on alert, Biden gave a calm "no" ...

"They continue to want to move on Kyiv, to capture Kyiv," he said. U.S. officials called the order "dangerous" and "escalatory." "We have long agreed — the United States and the Russian Federation — that a nuclear use would have devastating, devastating consequences," said Price. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin "is comfortable with the strategic deterrence posture of the United States and our ability to defend the homeland," Kirby told reporters. The Pentagon continues to "review and analyze and monitor" Russia's posture, said Defense Department spokesman John Kirby. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Washington sees "no reason" to change the alert levels of the U.S. nuclear force, and a senior defense official said the Pentagon had not seen any palpable shift by the Russians despite Putin's Sunday announcement.

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Image courtesy of "PBS NewsHour"

Putin put Russia's nuclear forces on alert. What does that mean for ... (PBS NewsHour)

Russian President Vladimir Putin's implied threat to turn the Ukraine war into a broader nuclear conflict presents President Joe Biden with choices rarely ...

But that is little comfort for the countries in Europe that are within range of those weapons. But it is so rare for an American or Russian leader to issue an implied nuclear threat, particularly in the current context of the war in Ukraine, that the risk of it going nuclear cannot be dismissed. “This is a very dangerous moment in this crisis, and we need to urge our leaders to walk back from the nuclear brink.” In Russia, like in the United States, the president has sole authority to order a nuclear strike. According to U.S. nuclear doctrine, the weapons’ alert level is central to their role in deterring attack. During the Cold War, U.S. and Russian weapons were not only more numerous but also in a higher state of readiness. Putin on Sunday told his top defense and military officials to put nuclear forces in a “special regime of combat duty,” but it was not immediately clear how that might have changed the status of Russian nuclear forces, if at all. Some arms control experts have argued for taking ICBMs off high alert by separating the missiles from their nuclear warheads. The bombers have remained off alert ever since. The 400 deployed U.S. ICBMs are armed at all times. The Biden administration was assessing Putin’s move, which it said unnecessarily escalates an already dangerous conflict. “Nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” they agreed.

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

What to know about Putin's nuclear order (The Washington Post)

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered nuclear forces on alert Sunday, adding a complicated and concerning dimension to the widening conflict in Ukraine.

Russia has nearly 6,000 warheads, slightly more than the United States’ approximately 5,400, according to the Federation of American Scientists. How dangerous, it’s hard to assess,” said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. U.S. officials have refused to say whether the Pentagon’s posture has changed in response to Putin’s announcement.

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Image courtesy of "Fortune"

Putin put his nuclear forces on the highest alert. Would he really ... (Fortune)

On Sunday, Vladimir Putin put his nuclear forces on special alert due to "aggressive statements" from the West. The U.S. called it "yet another escalatory and ...

However, Putin has invoked Russia's nuclear options in an announcement ahead of Thursday's invasion: "Even after the dissolution of the USSR and losing a considerable part of its capabilities, today's Russia remains one of the most powerful nuclear states. "Part of an escalation strategy could be to punish the European member states of NATO, which are delivering arms to the Ukraine. This might involve putting nonstrategic nuclear forces in and around Europe on alert and possibly even using single strikes with conventional ammunition to underscore the threat. The threat, he concluded, was "certainly not a game-changer." The Russian army is suffering serious logistical issues around fuel and ammunition, and the Ukrainians are fighting back harder than Moscow seems to have anticipated. According to Krause, Putin's decisions will be guided by the success of his Ukraine invasion—and as things stand, that's not going very well. The principle is, Why do we need the world if Russia won't be in it?"

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Image courtesy of "The Hill"

US sees Putin nuke threat as posturing | TheHill (The Hill)

Russia has said it deployed extra personnel to its nuclear forces, upping the geopolitical stakes as its invasion of Ukraine entered its fifth day.

“First off, the lack of change is a Good Thing! It doesn’t alter the fact Putin made an explicit nuclear threat on Sunday, but it does dial down the aggressiveness somewhat,” he said. Another option is to explode a nuclear weapon somewhere over the North Sea between Britain and Denmark and see what happens,” he said. I certainly hope he doesn’t do that,” said Cancian, who also worked on nuclear nonproliferation in the Department of Energy. Basically, he can negotiate a ceasefire that respects Ukraine’s sovereignty or continue the bloodbath of a conventional war.” But I’m a citizen of Russia and its head of state. “What I would tell you is we’ve seen Mr. Putin’s announcement.

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Image courtesy of "Business Insider"

Ukraine conflict increases risk of nuclear war, former intel chief warns (Business Insider)

In a striking departure from Cold War doctrine, experts say, Russia is asserting its right to use "tactical" nuclear weapons on the battlefield.

"The fact that we are even having such a discussion is reflective of the realization that yes, Putin might do the unthinkable." I think now he knows that all of that is at risk." Charismatic videos shot by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky have helped galvanize commitments for weaponry and stiffer sanctions from Germany and other members of the NATO alliance, of which Ukraine is not a member. And even if Putin orders a nuclear strike, history suggests it's possible his own military might refuse to comply. The following year, Putin said he had considered putting Russian nuclear weapons on alert to protect ethnic Russians in Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in violation of international law. "The Russians were driven to this," he told me, "because the current Russian army is, comparatively, a shadow of the Soviet army." If your traditional military is weak, in other words, tactical nuclear weapons offer a major form of compensation. But among the specialists who study Russia's nuclear arsenal, there has been a long-running debate about another scenario: the possibility that Russian forces might use so-called tactical nuclear weapons, which have shorter ranges and smaller explosive yields, to seize a battlefield advantage, especially in conflicts they are losing. To do otherwise would've played into Putin's hands, enabling him to recast his aggression toward Ukraine as part of a larger civilizational conflict with the West. And it's important not to overstate the practical significance of Putin's decision to put his nukes on a higher alert. He ordered Russian nuclear forces to shift to a higher state of alert he called "special combat readiness." Then, on Sunday, Putin shattered the complacency of any Westerners who believed they were a safe distance from the battlefield. During the first few days after Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine, the images from the conflict were both urgent and remote.

Key questions after Putin’s nuclear announcement (unknown)

Experts weigh in after President Putin put nuclear forces on high alert in dramatic escalation of East-West tensions.

“If we were to apply the doctrine [of the joint statement] there’d be a massive effort at disarmament. The Russian leader “is something of a gambler and a risk-taker,” said Cohen. “What he’s trying to do is muscle us all psychologically.” What’s more, Russia joined the other four permanent members of the UN Security Council in January in signing a document affirming that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”. “You are beginning to see the weaknesses on the battlefield … The fact that they haven’t been able to occupy a city and hold on to it, that tells you something.” Just as in NATO, a portion of Russian nuclear weapons are in constant readiness and “can be launched within 10 minutes”, said Marc Finaud, a nuclear proliferation expert at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy. Western powers including the United States and NATO protested sharply after Putin said in a televised address that the country’s nuclear “deterrence forces” were placed “into a special mode of combat service”.

Putin Declares a Nuclear Alert, and Biden Seeks De-escalation (unknown)

When the Russian leader ordered his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness,” the U.S. could have gone on high alert. Instead, the administration ...

He recalled that when Mr. Putin was asked how he would react to retaliatory sanctions by the West, he “said he was willing to put his nuclear forces on alert.” Just as Mr. Putin claimed last week that the United States had designs to put such weapons on Ukrainian territory — one of his many justifications for the invasion — American officials fear that Mr. Putin’s next move is to put them in Ukraine, if he succeeds in seizing the country, and in Belarus. But the talks collapsed, and Mr. Kim’s nuclear stockpile is now significantly larger, by most unclassified estimates, than it was before Mr. Trump issued the threat. He also noted that Mr. Trump had leveled similar threats against Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, after his armed forces conducted a series of long-range missile tests. It came only a few days after he warned the United States and other NATO powers to stay out of the conflict, adding that “the consequences will be such as you have never seen in your entire history.” Mr. Putin’s citation of “aggressive comments” as a justification for putting one of the world’s largest nuclear arsenals on alert status seemed both disproportionate and puzzling, he said. Matthew Kroenig, a professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University who specializes in atomic strategy, said history bristled with cases in which nuclear powers had threatened to unleash their arsenals on one another. It has put an end, at least for now, to the discussions between Russia and the United States about what they do in four years, when the one remaining nuclear treaty between the two countries, called New START, expires. But what made the latest nuclear outburst notable was that it was staged for television, as Mr. Putin told his generals that he was acting because of the West’s “aggressive comments” about Ukraine. Russia’s most senior military officer, Valery Gerasimov, sat stone-faced as Mr. Putin issued his directive, leaving some wondering what he was thinking, and how he might respond. Similar concerns drove the decision not to have Mr. Biden, in Delaware for the weekend, respond to Mr. Putin’s threats. The former director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., said in public today what some officials have been saying in private since the Russian leader began accusing Ukraine of genocide and claiming it was developing nuclear weapons of its own. Or the president could largely ignore it, sending out aides to portray Mr. Putin as once again manufacturing a menace, threatening Armageddon for a war he started without provocation.

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